10-Year Treasury Yield Surges Past 1.5% as Bond Market Posts Biggest Drop Since 1994; Six Investment Pros Weigh In

{"visible_text": "Six Investing Pros Weigh In on Surging Yields\nAs Treasury Yields Climb, These Six Stocks Could Take a Hit—And 4 That Could Benefit\n\nBy Daren Fonda and Reshma Kapadia\n\nYields are surging in bonds, stocks are wobbling, and the Federal Reserve is starting to talk about reducing its massive bond purchases.\n\nTrends in the bond market in 2022—in which investors are trying to anticipate where the economy is headed—hasn't been easy.\n\nThe yield on the 10-year Treasury note recently jumped past 1.5% for the first time since May, and is up from 1.4% earlier in the week, but some strategists see it heading up further. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin raising rates next year. And the prospect of higher rates triggered warnings that other borrowing costs won't necessarily follow in tandem.\n\nIn the corporate bond market, we asked six pros what they're watching. Some are focused on inflation, others on the U.S. labor market, and one is worried about the U.S. dollar. \"We are certainly not at a tipping point,\" says Dan Fuss, a fixed-income manager at Loomis Sayles. \"But we are certainly entering a new phase.\"\n\nDan Fuss / Vice Chairman and Senior Portfolio Manager, Loomis Sayles\n\nA gauge of bond prices that's based on a basket of mortgage and other borrowing costs is down 4% so far this year, to its lowest level since 2009. The Federal Reserve's exit from the mortgage-bond market will be a test.\n\nIn her 41 years in finance, Marilyn Cohen has seen many things, but this year's plunge in fixed income is new.\n\nBy her count, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index, a measure of high-quality U.S. bonds, has fallen more than 3% this year—the biggest drop since 1994.\n\n\"If yields keep rising, bonds may feel more pain,\" she says. Longer-term bonds, whose prices are more sensitive to changes in yields, typically fall more as yields rise. The 10-year Treasury yield ended last week at 1.49%, which is up from 1.32% earlier in the month.\n\nSonal Desai / Chief Fixed Income Officer, T. Rowe Price\n\nSonal Desai remains optimistic about U.S. growth but is mindful of inflation expectations.\n\nWith U.S. households drawing on a glut of cash savings, the labor market tight, and supply chain disruptions continuing, Desai says she sees a strong economy for a long time, with the Fed slowly tightening policy.\n\nByron Wien / Vice Chairman, Blackstone Private Wealth\n\nThe 93-year-old private investor says he is skeptical of the bond market and expects stocks will rise over the next year, if not more. But rising rates could pressure other markets.\n\nBill Miller / Chief Investment Officer, Miller Value Partners\n\nMiller talks about his views on digital assets versus Bitcoin.\n\nBob Arnott / Founder, Resolute Investment Managers\n\nArnott sees U.S. yields staying near their current levels through the end of 2022, but he isn't convinced that yields will spike substantially higher.", "image_type": "article_screenshot", "companies": ["Loomis Sayles", "Envision Capital", "T. Rowe Price", "Miller Value Partners", "Resolute Investment Managers", "Blackstone Private Wealth", "Miller Value Partners", "BlackRock", "U.S. Treasury", "Federal Reserve", "AppLovin", "Peloton Interactive", "DocuSign", "Snap", "Comcast", "Adobe", "Affirm Holdings", "Spotify", "Under Armour", "Endeavor Group", "Invesco", "PIMCO"], "industries": ["Investment Management", "Fixed Income", "Treasury Bonds", "Mortgage Bonds", "Cryptocurrency", "Private Wealth Management", "Asset Management", "Technology", "Consumer Electronics", "Financial Services"], "key_numbers": ["1.5% - 10-year Treasury yield threshold mentioned", "1.49% - 10-year Treasury yield (current at time of article)", "1.32% - 10-year Treasury yield earlier in month", "3% - Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index drop this year", "4% - mortgage-related bond index decline in 2022", "1994 - reference year for biggest bond drop", "4.2% - mortgage rate", "$3,000 - S&P 500 average dividend", "20 - years since BlackRock was founded", "1.4% - earlier yield figure that week", "0.83% - August jobs number mentioned"], "table_data": [], "chart_insights": "Article mentions the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index being down more than 3% this year (biggest drop since 1994). Discusses yield curve movements and compares different asset classes. Mentions mortgage rates at 4.2%, which could impact housing market. Notes Treasury yields have risen from 1.32% to 1.49% in a short period.", "key_information": ["10-year Treasury yields surged past 1.5% for first time since May", "Federal Reserve expected to begin raising rates next year", "Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index dropped 3%+ this year - biggest drop since 1994", "Longer-term bonds more sensitive to yield changes - fall more as yields rise", "T. Rowe Price's Sonal Desai sees strong U.S. economy continuing with Fed slowly tightening", "Byron Wien skeptical of bond market, expects stocks to rise", "Bill Miller discusses Bitcoin vs digital assets valuation differences", "Bob Arnott expects U.S. yields to stay near current levels through end of 2022", "Marilyn Cohen notes mortgage rates at 4.2% impacting housing market", "Dan Fuss notes corporate bond spreads remain tight despite yield surge", "Article lists 6 stocks that could be hurt by rising yields and 4 that could benefit"], "source_date_clues": "Article references September and recent yield movements suggesting publication in late September/early October 2021. References to 'this year' (2022 data) suggests this might be a retrospective or update article. Byron Wien mentioned as 93 years old helps with timeline estimation. Mentions of $3,000 average S&P 500 dividend suggests data circa 2021-2022. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index drop of 3%+ being biggest since 1994 points to 2022 publication date given similar yield environment.", "research_relevance": "Article provides multiple professional perspectives on Treasury yield surge, bond market dynamics, and investment implications. Relevant for fixed income investors, equity investors interested in rate-sensitive sectors, and anyone tracking Federal Reserve policy expectations. Key themes include inflation expectations, Fed tapering timeline, mortgage market impact, and yield curve positioning strategies. Six investment professionals offer diverse views covering corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, equity opportunities, cryptocurrency, and housing market implications."}

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index fell more than 3%—biggest drop since 1994；Mortgage bond price gauge down 4% this year to lowest level since 2009