“MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LTD Meta A Marshall Equity Analyst Meta.Marshall@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0430 Lucas Cerisola Research Associate Lucas.Cerisola@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-9194 Ryan Lountzis Equity Analyst Ryan.Lountzis@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3189 Abhishek S Murli…”
关联内容单元 #1630 · 原始来源原始全文
MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LTD Meta A Marshall Equity Analyst Meta.Marshall@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0430 Lucas Cerisola Research Associate Lucas.Cerisola@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-9194 Ryan Lountzis Equity Analyst Ryan.Lountzis@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3189 Abhishek S Murli Research Associate Abhishek.S.Murli@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-7388 Software | North America # Cyber Feedback: Expensive, But Necessary ## WHAT'S CHANGED Okta, Inc. (OKTA.O) From To Price Target $200.00 $245.00 Investors agreed with our analysis that cyber should see acceleration from increased AI safety concerns and that platforms are best positioned. However, with val'ns viewed as stretched, incremental investors await pullbacks on platforms, increasingly looking at cheaper names like OKTA/FTNT/S/SAIL. ## Key Takeaways Investors agree with analysis in our AI Cyber note last week, seeing acceleration and share gain potential for platforms (PANW, CRWD). However, at current valuations, incremental investors are being more opportunistic and looking to a broader set of names. OKTA is a name many investors are following; we raise our PT given Oktane event last week and our view that it's a beneficiary of the Agentic Identity theme. FTNT is another name investors are examining in order to determine how long the refresh/technical debt cycle might last. While fewer investors are looking beyond those four names, S/SAIL did come up in about a quarter of conversations. Along with our US Policy and Thematics team, we published a couple of standalone cyber notes last week, Attack of the Agents: Cybersecurity Scenarios In 3 States of the World and a What's in the Price note for PANW and CRWD. Need is clear, but investors see the platforms as expensive. Following our cyber deep dives last week, investor conversations leaned constructive on cyber, but concerned around valuation (with CRWD at 30x 28e Sales and PANW at 18x). With our analysis pointing to acceleration in both share gains and market growth being built into stocks, there is a view that there isn't much room in current valuations of the platforms. However, with increasing reports of jailbreaks and malicious behavior on the part of autonomous agents, there was also a recognition that the theme isn't likely to cool off enough to create an attractive entry opportunity, potentially forcing moves by investors who have been on the sidelines. We expect a combination of reluctant stragglers and squeezing of shorts to drive moves from here. Looking outside of core platforms for other ways to play the theme. As a result of the valuations of PANW/CRWD, widely acknowledged to be winners on the theme, we did detect a greater willingness to look at a slightly broader set of MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC ## SOFTWARE North America Industry View Attractive names. For the majority of conversations, this meant OKTA or FTNT, though in a smaller group of cases, this would also include S or SAIL. For OKTA, the name is generally seen as a secular winner from Agentic Identity exposure, highlighted in our Deep Dive and recent Oktane note, with investors wondering how quickly some of the acceleration can take place because of the agentic opportunity. We continue to think this will come on slowly, with moves this year related to technical debt being addressed, but continue to see runway with the name (see PT update below). For FTNT, we think the name has clearly seen a benefit from technical debt being addressed over the last couple of quarters, with product growth accelerating meaningfully. Investors tend to be concerned with whether that can continue with a stronger COVID-era refresh next year or whether difficult comps made it hard to outperform. We have been biased negatively, leaning more towards difficult comps, but will be doing some work here, particularly as outcome bleeds into the whole firewall space (CSCO, CHKP). S and SAIL were brought up less frequently, but with both being 20% growers at attractive valuations, conversations took place as to whether they were worth looking at more closely. Agree with scenarios, with generally only the investors who are not involved being primed to believe bear case. Overall, investors were receptive to our analysis of 3 potential scenarios of cyber spend in coming years, namely: 1) Status Quo, 2) Accelerated Spend in Catch-up, 3) Cyber Unable to Catch Breaches, more general cyber slowdown (scenarios we described as going from most likely to least likely). In general, many see the status quo as the most likely, where a more gradual ramp up in cyber spend will have to come in (causing acceleration to \~20%+ market growth). We did find that those who are not involved in cyber tend to want to believe the bear case of there being a bigger breach that cyber vendors would be unlikely to catch. We tend to think that trade is likely to get squeezed more in the near term as investors reassess whether they have appropriate exposure to the theme. Cyber maintenance post user events; OKTA PT to \$245 from \$200 (remain OW). With CRWD and OKTA holding investor events in the past couple of weeks, we are publishing an updated model reflecting revised FY28 NNARR guidance for CRWD as a part of this note. We are updating our OKTA PT following Oktane last week given 1) several AI-related product announcements including Agent SSO, A2A connections, and a robust company alliance (“Blueprint Alliance”) focused on helping enterprises secure and govern AI agents, 2) management commentary suggesting IAM could be the biggest market within cyber in five years, primarily driven by agentic, and 3) AI driving a more robust identity modernization opportunity. Our revised PT is a function of increasing our CY27 FCF multiple from 33X to 41X, implying a CY27 sales multiple of 12.0X (vs 9.6X prior). This puts OKTA’s EV/Sales/g in line with platforms at \~1.2x EV/Sales/g, vs. 0.8x EV/Sales/g for broader cyber software to reflect the company’s attractive positioning and ability to reaccelerate growth as they capture agentic identity share and an increase in identity modernizations. ## Risk Reward – Okta, Inc. (OKTA.O) A Secular Winner in SaaS Security Making a Comeback ## PRICE TARGET \$245.00 Based on 41x Base Case CY27e FCF and implying \~12X EV/CY27e sales, roughly in line with the broader Security group to account for reaccelerating growth profile and potential upside from AI-related product opportunity ## Consensus Price Target Distribution Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research  ## RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M)  Key: — Historical Stock Performance ● Current Stock Price ◆ Price Target Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 28 Sep 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either three-months' or one-years' time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here ## OVERWEIGHT THESIS \- OKTA remains a long-term share gainer in Identity and Access Management, a large and rapidly growing market opportunity tied to key secular themes such as Cloud adoption and an increasingly hybrid workforce. With >\$40 billion estimated TAM, we see long runway of growth and modest share gain. - Stabilizing topline growth and improving profitability should drive 15-20% FCF CAGR over the next few years, closing the significant valuation gap vs SaaS/security peers.  ## Risk Reward Themes Secular Growth: Positive View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here ## BULL CASE \$285.00 ## 46x Bull Case 2027e FCF of \$1,094M Expanding Market Opportunity. Okta maintains its position as a leader in identity and access management within the traditional use cases, while also seeing meaningful traction in the external customer use case. This drives a 2-yr revenue CAGR of 13% to reach \$3.7B in CY27. FCF margin reaches 29% by CY27, driving FCF of \$1,094M. OKTA trades at 46x EV/FCF in CY27, yielding a \$285 CY27 valuation (\~13x EV/CY27 Sales). ## BASE CASE ## \$245.00 BEAR CASE ## 41x Base Case 2027e FCF of \$1,037M Leading Share Gainer in Identity Management. Okta continues to be the leading share gainer in identity and access management market, with a total revenue 2-yr CAGR of 10% to reach \$3.5B by CY27. FCF margins reach 29%, driving CY27 FCF of \$1,037M. OKTA trades at 41x EV/FCF in CY27, yielding a \$245 share price in CY27 (\~12x EV/CY27 Sales). ## \$145.00 ## 23x Bear Case 2027e FCF of \$1,008M Competitive Pressures Limit Pace of Growth. Competition from larger vendors impedes OKTA's growth and drives higher deceleration in topline. Rev. growth slows to 9% CAGR from CY25e-CY27e, reaching total rev. of \$3.4B by CY27. FCF margin reaches 29% by CY27, driving FCF of \$1,008M. OKTA trades at 23x EV/FCF in CY27, yielding a \$145 CY27 valuation (\~7X EV/CY27 Sales). ## Risk Reward – Okta, Inc. (OKTA.O) ## KEY EARNINGS INPUTS Drivers Jan 2026 Jan 2027e Jan 2028e Jan 2029e Total Billings YoY Growth (%) 10.3 13.0 9.0 8.5 Dollar Net Retention (%) 94.0 94.0 94.0 94.0 Operating Margin % (%) 26.2 25.9 26.6 27.3 ## INVESTMENT DRIVERS \- Faster than expected share gain in identity management security market • Stable to improving Net Retention Rate \- Improving sales productivity as sales reps ramp on newer offerings ## GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE 0-10% APAC, ex Japan, Mainland China and India 0-10% Europe ex UK 0-10% India 0-10% Japan 0-10% Latin America 0-10% MEA 0-10% Mainland China 0-10% UK 0-10% 80-90% Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here ## MS ALPHA MODELS 3/5BEST 24 MonthHorizon 5/5MOST 3 MonthHorizon Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile ## RISKS TO PT/RATING RISKS TO UPSIDE 1) Stronger upsell traction with Auth0; 2) Emerging opportunity around securing external users (customers, partners) comes into fruition faster than expected; 3) Material pickup in activity around emerging governance and PAM use cases. ## RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 1) Broader security spending slows materially; 2) increased competition from larger vendors like Microsoft; 3) execution issues take longer than expected to resolve ## OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Inst. Owners, % Active 55.8% HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x HF Sector Net Exposure 30.6% Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund exposures held with MSPB. Information may be inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) / (Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure). MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS  ◆ Mean ◆ Morgan Stanley Estimates Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research ## Risk Reward – CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD.O) Broad Security Platform Driving Long-Term Share Gains ## PRICE TARGET \$254.00 Our \$254 PT is based on 64X CY30e FCF of \$5.44B, discounted back at 12%. This multiple implies \~36X EV/CY27 Sales, a premium to Large Cap SaaS/Security peers. Consensus Price Target Distribution Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research  ## RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M)  Key: — Historical Stock Performance ● Current Stock Price ◆ Price Target ## OVERWEIGHT THESIS CrowdStrike has quickly risen to market leadership as a next-gen SaaS security platform. Continued share gain in the core endpoint market, in addition to growing uptake of emerging modules (SIEM, identity protection, cloud security) and favorable AI positioning should help to sustain 20%+ topline longer term. Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 28 Sep 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either three-months' or one-years' time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here With the broader platform garnering traction, GenAI gaining momentum, and improvements in EBIT, we see durable 25%+ FCF CAGR over the next 3 years. We believe the stock's premium valuation is justified given potential topline re-acceleration, improving margin profile, and highly defensible moat across multiple areas of the security stack, driving our OW thesis.  Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research ## Risk Reward Themes Secular Growth: Positive View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here ## BULL CASE \$308.00 65X CY30e FCF of \$6.56B, discounted back at 12% -ARR reaches \$14.9B in CY30, a 24% 5-yr CAGR -Rev. grows to \$13.1B in CY30, a 23% 5-yr CAGR -Op. Margins improve from 22% in CY23 to 41% in CY30, yielding \$6.56B in FCF -Apply 65x EV/CY30 FCF mult (1.3x EV/CY27 FCF growth adjusted), discounted back at 12%, to get to our \$308 bull case valuation BASE CASE \$254.00 64X CY30e FCF of \$5.48B, discounted back at 12% -ARR reaches \$13.9B in CY30, a 22% 5-yr CAGR -Rev. grows to \$12.2B in CY30, a 21% 5-yr CAGR -Op. Margins improve from 22% in CY23 to 37% in CY30, yielding \$5.48B in FCF -Apply 64x EV/CY30 FCF mult (1.6x EV/CY27 FCF growth adjusted), discounted back at 12%, to get to our \$254 valuation ## BEAR CASE \$103.00 40X CY30e FCF of \$3.4B, discounted back at 12% -ARR reaches \$11.3B in CY30, a 17% 5-yr CAGR -Rev. grows to \$9.9B in CY30, a 16% 5-yr CAGR -Op. Margins improve from 22% in CY23 to 31% in CY30, yielding \$3.4B in FCF -Apply 40x EV/CY30 FCF mult (2.3x EV/CY27 FCF growth adjusted), discounted back at 12%, to get to our \$103 bear case valuation ## Risk Reward – CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD.O) KEY EARNINGS INPUTS Drivers Jan 2026 Jan 2027e Jan 2028e Jan 2029e ARR YoY Growth (%) 23.8 25.8 24.7 0.0 Customer Count Growth (%) 17.2 16.0 14.8 0.0 Net Revenue Retention Rate (%) 115.0 116.2 116.2 0.0 Gross Margin (%) 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.6 Operating Margin (%) 21.7 25.1 27.2 30.2 ## INVESTMENT DRIVERS Upcoming earnings ## GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE  Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here ## MS ALPHA MODELS 4/5BEST 24 MonthHorizon 3/5MOST 3 MonthHorizon Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile - Stronger than expected endpoint security demand remains elevated due to rising cyber threats - TAM expansion opportunities (XDR, Identity, Cloud Workload Protection) materialize faster than expected - Competition makes new customer acquisition tougher - Lower cost alternatives commoditize CRWD's premium pricing - Softer hiring environment pressures upsell activity ## RISKS TO PT/RATING ## RISKS TO UPSIDE ## RISKS TO DOWNSIDE ## OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Inst. Owners, % Active 48.4% HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x HF Sector Net Exposure 30.6% Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund exposures held with MSPB. Information may be inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) / (Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure). MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS  ◆ Mean ◆ Morgan Stanley Estimates Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research ## CRWD Model Changes and Updated Financials Exhibit 1: Model Changes CrowdStrike Model Changes 4/26 7/26 10/26E 1/27E FY27E 4/27E 7/27E 10/27E 1/28E FY28E FY29E New Total ARR 5508.8 5841.4 6186.4 6607.3 6607.3 6908.7 7277.5 7709.1 8236.3 8236.3 9968.2 YoY 24.2% 25.4% 25.7% 25.8% 25.8% 25.4% 24.6% 24.6% 24.7% 24.7% 21.0% Old Total ARR 5508.8 5841.4 6186.4 6607.3 6607.3 6897.4 7266.6 7649.3 8114.5 8114.5 9810.7 YoY 24.2% 25.4% 25.7% 25.8% 25.8% 25.2% 24.4% 23.6% 22.8% 22.8% 20.9% % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% $ Change $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $11.3 $10.9 $59.9 $121.8 $121.8 $157.5 New Net-New ARR 255.8 332.6 344.9 421.0 1354.3 301.3 368.8 431.6 527.1 1628.9 1731.9 YoY 32.1% 50.4% 30.0% 27.2% 34.0% 17.8% 10.9% 25.1% 25.2% 20.3% 6.3% Old Net-New ARR 255.8 332.6 344.9 421.0 1354.3 290.0 369.2 382.7 465.2 1507.2 1696.2 YoY 32.1% 50.4% 30.0% 27.2% 34.0% 13.4% 11.0% 10.9% 10.5% 11.3% 12.5% % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% -0.1% 12.8% 13.3% 8.1% 2.1% $ Change in $ $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $11.3 -$0.4 $49.0 $61.9 $121.8 $35.8 New Total Revenue 1385.6 1470.9 1526.2 1613.3 5996.0 1710.3 1776.2 1873.0 1978.0 7337.4 8780.4 YoY 25.6% 25.8% 23.7% 23.6% 24.6% 23.4% 20.8% 22.7% 22.6% 22.4% 19.7% Old Total Revenue 1385.6 1470.9 1526.2 1613.3 5996.0 1710.3 1773.2 1870.2 1962.6 7316.3 8747.1 YoY 25.6% 25.8% 23.7% 23.6% 24.6% 23.4% 20.6% 22.5% 21.7% 22.0% 19.6% % Change in Revenue $ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% $ Change in $ $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $2.9 $2.8 $15.4 $21.1 $33.3 New Operating Income 325.7 371.6 374.3 431.1 1502.7 443.8 491.6 506.4 554.5 1996.3 2654.5 New Operating Margin 23.5% 25.3% 24.5% 26.7% 25.1% 25.9% 27.7% 27.0% 28.0% 27.2% 30.2% Old Old Operating Income 325.7 371.6 374.3 431.1 1502.7 443.8 490.8 505.6 550.2 1990.4 2644.4 Old Operating Margin 23.5% 25.3% 24.5% 26.7% 25.1% 25.9% 27.7% 27.0% 28.0% 27.2% 30.2% Change to $ $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.8 $0.8 $4.3 $5.9 $10.1 Change to % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% New Free Cash Flow 468.5 377.4 421.1 537.0 1808.2 558.4 505.2 628.4 830.9 2523.0 3151.2 New FCF Margin 33.8% 25.7% 27.6% 33.3% 30.2% 32.6% 28.4% 33.6% 42.0% 34.4% 35.9% Old Free Cash Flow 468.5 377.4 421.1 537.0 1808.2 562.5 514.5 620.7 820.8 2518.6 3130.2 Old FCF Margin 33.8% 25.7% 27.6% 33.3% 30.2% 32.9% 29.0% 33.2% 41.8% 34.4% 35.8% % Change to FCF Margin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% $ Change in $ $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 -$4.1 -$9.3 $7.7 $10.1 $4.4 $21.0 Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Company Data Exhibit 2: CRWD Revenue Drivers FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 1Q26 1Q27E 1Q28E 1Q29E 1Q30E 1Q31E 1Q32E 1Q33E 1Q34E Customer Model Per Customer Metrics Annual Recurring Revenue Model Prior Year Annual Recurring Revenue 1,731.5 2,559.7 3,435.2 4,542.5 4,435.6 4,655.7 4,922.0 5,253.9 5,253.9 5,555.8 5,841.4 6,166.4 6,607.3 (1) New Customer ARR 350.3 389.1 364.6 374.7 407.9 486.2 467.0 503.4 503.4 507.5 489.7 520.6 558.5 New Year Gross New Customer ($MM) $53.3 $57.0 $46.1 $38.1 $39.9 $46.2 $42.4 $45.5 $45.5 $44.7 $41.6 $42.4 $45.6 YoY Growth -16% 7% -17% -21% -4% 14% 10% 20% 20% 12% 10% 0% 0% (1) Expansion ARR 436.0 486.3 412.2 636.3 665.3 698.5 797.4 851.0 851.0 882.4 946.3 1,002.2 1,075.4 Net Expansion Rate 120% 119% 112% 115% 115% 115% 115% 116% 116% 116% 116% 116% 116% Net New ARR 826.4 875.0 806.0 1,011.0 200.8 332.8 343.9 421.0 1,354.3 301.3 368.8 431.8 527.1 YoY Growth 22% 6% -6% 23% 32% 50% 27% 24.1% 16% 11% 25% 25% 20% QoQ Growth -22% 30% 4% 22% -28% 22% 17% 22% 3 yr Sessacrality -20% 10% 1% 33% -20% 16% -2% 31% NNARR / Prior Year S&M $1.58 $1.17 $0.84 $0.80 $0.89 $0.81 Ending Annual Recurring Revenue 2,559.7 3,453.2 4,542.5 5,353.5 5,558.0…
AI 解读
OKTA PT raised to $245 (from $200) with material FCF multiple expansion (33x→41x).；OKTA EV/Sales multiple upgraded to 12x from 9.6x, now in line with broader security platforms.