SpaceX全速推进Terafab半导体晶圆厂建设，对标全美先进制程产线

# Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q326 earnings preview: Raising 2027-28E capex for next phase of AI growth ## Cloud AI mega-trend driving sales growth $>40\%$ in 2026E and $40\%$ in 2027E Feedback from our recent industry analysis suggests no signs of Cloud AI demand moderation (Summit Day 1, Day 2&3, CoWoS update); yet the demand outlook has further strengthened across CPUs, GPUs and ASICs in 2027-28. TSMC is on track to reach 2026 sales guidance of slightly over 40% growth in USD (UBSe 41%), and our growth analysis points to sustained 40% sales growth in 2027E, above consensus of 36%. We estimate Q3 sales at 14% QoQ in USD and GM at 67.1%, both at high-end of guidance. We forecast Q4 sales to grow 10% QoQ thanks to seasonal build of flagship phones and accelerating ramp of high performance compute (HPC), with flat GM of 67.0% considering the dilution of N2 and overseas expansion. ## Further step-up of capex in 2027-28E We have been constructive about TSMC's capex and view higher capex essential in solidifying TSMC's leadership in advanced foundry. We keep 2026E capex at US\$63bn, and raise 2027/28E capex to US\$90bn/105bn from US\$80bn/95bn previously. Higher estimates are based on: 1) our industry analysis shows that TSMC is further accelerating expansion across N3/2 and pulls forward tool delivery schedule of A14 for larger capacity by 2028 when in mass production; 2) more meaningful price inflation of equipment, and required prepayment; 3) higher capex for advanced packaging. We forecast capital intensity to rise moderately from 36.6% in 2026 to 37.4% in 2027 but rnomalize to 32.6% in 2028. We lift TSMC's N3/2 capacity estimates at end of 2028 to 220/210kwpm, vs 200/160kwpm prior. See our foundry sector note for details. ## What will the earnings call focus on? 1) Overall semi cycle outlook. UBS forecasts semis (ex memory) revenue to grow 31%/15% in 2026/27 led by Cloud AI. UBS remains conservative on consumer end demand, estimating further 3%/4% declines for smartphone/PC units in 2027. 2) TSMC's capex strategy over the next 3-4 years, and whether any bottlenecks could constrain its expansion plans. 3) Competition, especially as peers such as Samsung Foundry and Terafab have shown increased ability to invest, although we also believe TSMC may engage for potential angles to collaborate on Terafab. 4) Gross margin in H226/2027. We forecast GM to decline slightly to 67.0% in H226, and stabilize at 67.2% in 2027, underpinned by price hike, scale benefits and improved product mix. ## Valuation: reiterate Buy and target of NT\$3,650 We raise 2027E and beyond capex and lift long-term earnings CAGR from 25% to 27%. Our target of NT\$3,650 is based on 21x 2027-28E PE. We see meaningful re-rating potential from the current 16.6x/12.2x 2027/28E PE. Key catalysts include stronger 2027-28E growth outlook, continued TAM expansion and higher capex spend. ## Equities Taiwan Semiconductors 12-month rating Buy 12m price target NT\$3,650.00 Price (24 Sep 2026) NT\$2,475 Trading data and key metrics 52-wk range NT$2,510.00-1,300.00 Market cap. NT$64,183b/US$2,018b Shares o/s 25,933m (ORD) Free float 87% Avg. daily volume ('000) 30,280 Avg. daily value (m) NT$72,306 Common s/h equity (12/26E) NT$7605b P/BV (12/26E) 8.4x Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM EPS (UBS, diluted) (TWD) From To % ch Cons. 12/26E 108.96 109.06 0 107.75 12/27E 149.14 148.98 -0 142.23 12/28E 198.23 202.52 2 181.39 Sunny Lin Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346 Randy Abrams Analyst randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338 Nicolas Gaudois Analyst nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com +65-6495 5148 Highlights (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E Revenues 2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,476,015 7,702,256 10,318,264 12,449,992 15,340,962 EBIT (UBS) 921,466 1,322,053 1,936,092 3,234,125 4,555,628 6,185,603 7,367,818 9,103,236 Net earnings (UBS) 838,498 1,173,268 1,717,883 2,827,838 3,863,186 5,251,406 6,303,595 7,848,981 EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) 32.34 45.24 66.24 109.06 148.98 202.52 243.10 302.69 DPS (net) (NT$) 13.00 17.00 22.00 29.50 40.50 53.00 66.00 76.00 Net (debt) / cash 764,451 1,435,557 2,075,442 2,735,755 3,575,546 5,221,292 8,003,603 12,267,264 Profitability/valuation 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E EBIT (UBS) margin % 42.6 45.7 50.8 59.1 59.1 59.9 59.2 59.3 ROIC (EBIT) % 38.6 49.6 65.1 81.9 79.7 78.1 73.5 77.1 EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x 9.1 11.0 10.8 15.2 10.8 7.8 6.2 4.7 P/E (UBS, diluted) x 16.8 19.7 17.6 22.7 16.6 12.2 10.2 8.2 Equity FCF (UBS) yield % 2.1 3.8 3.3 1.7 2.4 4.1 6.5 9.2 Dividend yield (net) % 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.1 Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT\$ 2,475.00 on 24-Sep-2026 13:57:37 CST Figure 1: TSMC's platform driver summary TSMC growth drivers 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 15-20 CAGR 20-27E CAGR HPC - TSMC $5.9 $6.1 $8.1 $11.3 $10.2 $14.9 $21.0 $31.3 $30.0 $46.0 $70.3 $113.7 $178.7 21% 43% HPC - Market $34.4 $35.7 $40.1 $44.0 $42.8 $48.8 $59.0 $56.4 $54.2 $65.5 $94.0 $138.7 $217.6 7% 24% TSMC share (%) 17.0% 17.1% 20.2% 25.8% 23.9% 30.6% 35.7% 55.4% 55.3% 70.2% 74.8% 82.0% 82.1% Automotive - TSMC $1.1 $1.3 $1.4 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5 $2.4 $3.9 $4.3 $4.3 $6.1 $7.0 $8.1 8% 27% Automotive - Market $10.1 $11.5 $13.0 $14.2 $13.7 $13.3 $18.0 $22.8 $27.0 $25.0 $23.7 $26.1 $29.3 6% 12% TSMC share (%) 10.3% 11.7% 10.8% 12.0% 11.3% 11.3% 13.3% 17.1% 15.9% 17.4% 25.8% 26.9% 27.5% IoT - TSMC $1.1 $1.7 $1.8 $2.2 $2.8 $3.7 $4.8 $6.6 $5.2 $5.2 $6.1 $6.7 $7.2 27% 10% IoT - Market $6.5 $8.69 $10.8 $12.2 $13.3 $15.3 $22.9 $28.0 $29.0 $30.8 $35.6 $40.4 $45.6 19% 17% TSMC share (%) 17.5% 19.0% 16.7% 17.7% 21.0% 24.5% 20.8% 23.5% 17.9% 16.8% 17.2% 16.6% 15.9% Mobile - TSMC $11.6 $13.8 $15.4 $15.5 $16.9 $21.9 $24.9 $29.8 $26.1 $31.3 $35.8 $39.6 $43.0 14% 10% Mobile - Market $28.9 $29.2 $30.4 $26.0 $26.6 $31.5 $36.9 $36.9 $37.0 $39.6 $43.8 $46.3 $51.5 2% 7% TSMC share (%) 40.1% 47.3% 50.7% 59.5% 63.8% 69.7% 67.5% 80.7% 70.6% 79.1% 81.8% 85.6% 83.4% Digital Consumer $2.4 $2.6 $2.5 $1.9 $1.7 $1.9 $2.0 $1.9 $1.5 $1.5 $1.2 $1.3 $1.3 -5.0% -4% Other $4.6 $3.9 $2.8 $1.6 $1.4 $1.5 $1.7 $2.5 $2.2 $1.9 $2.4 $3.9 $2.4 -19.8% 6% UBSe TSMC revenue (US$bn) $26.6 $29.4 $32.1 $34.2 $34.6 $45.5 $56.8 $75.9 $69.3 $90.2 $122.0 $172.2 $240.7 11.3% 26.9% YoY Growth 10.6% 9.1% 6.5% 1.3% 31.4% 24.9% 33.5% -8.7% 30.1% 35.3% 41.1% 39.8% * Market size in wafer production value % of sales 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 15-20 Chg 20-27E Chg HPC 22% 21% 25% 33% 30% 33% 37% 41% 43% 51% 58% 66% 74% 11% 41% Automotive 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% -1% 0% IoT 4% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 4% -5% Mobile 43% 47% 48% 45% 49% 48% 44% 39% 38% 35% 29% 23% 18% 5% -30% Digital consumer 9% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% -5% -4% Other 17% 13% 9% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% -14% -2% Source: Company data, UBS estimates Figure 2: TSMC's high-performance computing a driver led by CPU, GPU and AI accelerators HPC Silicon Market (US$bn) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 15-20 CAGR 20-27E CAGR Servers and CPUs $66.9 $75.1 $65.6 $55.8 $64.6 $79.1 $107.0 $146.2 7% 12% Graphics and Gaming $12.4 $21.8 $18.8 $19.6 $17.9 $26.1 $30.6 $32.6 12% 15% AI Accelerators $4.2 $6.0 $7.7 $16.6 $40.3 $80.0 $154.7 $310.3 66% 85% Cryptocurrency $1.5 $3.5 $5.0 $2.5 $3.5 $6.5 $5.0 $5.0 38% 19% Programmable Logic $4.9 $5.6 $7.5 $8.5 $5.4 $5.0 $4.6 $5.1 5% 1% Networking & Infrastructure $17.2 $18.9 $21.7 $23.2 $24.9 $34.8 $48.8 $68.3 6% 22% Computing Peripherals $8.5 $9.76 $10.2 $10.5 $10.7 $10.8 $9.7 $10.7 1% 3% HPC - Market $115.6 $140.7 $136.5 $136.6 $167.2 $242.3 $360.3 $578.1 8% 26% YoY Growth 14% 22% -3% 0% 22% 45% 49% 60% HPC Wafer Opportunity (US$bn) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 15-20 CAGR 20-27E CAGR Servers and CPUs $31.6 $35.4 $31.0 $26.3 $30.5 $37.3 $50.5 $69.0 7% 12% Graphics and Gaming $4.7 $8.2 $7.0 $7.4 $6.7 $9.8 $11.5 $12.2 12% 15% AI Accelerators $1.1 $1.5 $2.0 $4.6 $12.1 $25.8 $52.2 $104.7 60% 93% Cryptocurrency $0.8 $1.8 $2.6 $1.3 $1.8 $3.4 $2.6 $2.6 38% 19% Programmable Logic $1.3 $1.5 $2.0 $2.3 $1.5 $1.4 $1.3 $1.4 5% 1% Networking & Infrastructure $5.8 $6.4 $7.3 $7.8 $8.4 $11.8 $16.5 $23.0 6% 22% Computing Peripherals $3.6 $4.2 $4.4 $4.5 $4.6 $4.6 $4.1 $4.6 1% 3% HPC - Market $48.8 $59.0 $56.4 $54.2 $65.5 $94.0 $138.7 $217.6 7% 24% YoY Growth 14% 21% -4% -4% 21% 43% 47% 57% TSMC HPC estimates (UBS) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 15-20 CAGR 20-27E CAGR Servers and CPUs $6.0 $8.5 $10.1 $9.7 $17.6 $22.5 $33.6 $43.8 NM 33% Graphics and Gaming $3.2 $4.0 $5.3 $6.1 $6.4 $9.4 $11.0 $11.7 10% 21% AI Accelerators $1.1 $1.5 $2.0 $4.6 $12.1 $25.8 $52.2 $104.7 60% 93% Cryptocurrency $0.6 $1.5 $2.1 $1.0 $1.5 $2.7 $2.1 $2.1 38% 19% Programmable Logic $0.7 $1.0 $1.4 $1.8 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.4 4% 9% Networking & Network Processors $1.7 $1.9 $2.8 $3.4 $3.9 $5.6 $7.9 $11.1 1% 31% Computing Peripherals $1.8 $1.9 $2.5 $2.5 $2.8 $3.1 $2.8 $3.1 6% 8% Inventory builds -$0.1 $0.8 $5.1 $0.8 $0.7 $0.0 -$1.0 -$3.0 TSMC HPC revenue (US$bn) $14.9 $21.0 $31.3 $30.0 $46.0 $70.3 $113.7 $178.7 21% 43% YoY Growth 46% 41% 49% -4% 54% 53% 62% 57% TSMC share of HPC production 31% 36% 55% 55% 70% 75% 82% 82% TSMC revenue (US$bn) $45.5 $56.8 $75.9 $69.3 $90.2 $122.0 $172.2 $240.7 11% 27% HPC % of TSMC Sales 33% 37% 41% 43% 51% 58% 66% 74% Source: Company data, UBS estimates Figure 3: Revenue from TSMC's more balanced top-customer base to sustain in 2026E, accelerate in 2027E (in US\$m) TSMC Revenue 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E Apple $6,906 $8,158 $11,928 $15,156 $17,753 $17,521 $19,393 $20,926 $28,712 $35,077 25.3% 21.5% 17.1% 16.7% 14.6% AMD $1,302 $1,232 $3,148 $5,562 $7,572 $7,750 $8,336 $11,523 $16,796 $31,700 11.2% 9.2% 9.4% 9.8% 13.2% Qualcomm $1,915 $1,994 $3,187 $4,280 $6,574 $6,314 $7,910 $9,448 $8,880 $9,506 9.1% 8.8% 7.7% 5.2% 3.9% NVIDIA $2,302 $2,024 $2,802 $2,987 $3,144 $6,097 $10,865 $22,973 $35,008 $56,010 8.8% 12.0% 18.8% 20.3% 23.3% Mediatek $1,423 $1,424 $2,683 $5,114 $3,962 $3,379 $4,412 $5,166 $6,156 $12,996 4.9% 4.9% 4.2% 3.6% 5.4% Broadcom $3,314 $2,517 $2,686 $3,770 $4,919 $3,719 $4,024 $5,281 $13,762 $24,472 5.4% 4.5% 4.3% 8.0% 10.2% Intel $1,092 $1,120 $1,792 $2,453 $3,110 $3,274 $7,615 $9,489 $9,964 $7,640 4.7% 8.4% 7.8% 5.8% 3.2% Marvell $544 $514 $568 $970 $1,293 $1,362 $1,505 $2,333 $3,536 $5,640 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% Renesas / Intersil / Dialog $267 $229 $267 $1,087 $1,292 $1,090 $1,021 $1,069 $1,445 $1,601 1.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% NXP $700 $526 $569 $911 $1,167 $1,158 $1,149 $1,273 $1,435 $1,555 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% TSMC sales from its top 10 $20,600 $19,836 $29,013 $41,361 $52,780 $51,663 $66,229 $89,481 $125,694 $186,196 75% 73% 73% 73% 77% TSMC YoY at its top 10 0% -4% 46% 43% 28% -2% 28% 35% 40% 48% TSMC sales from its top 30 $31,048 $31,220 $41,181 $50,572 $61,790 $60,194 $74,555 $99,095 $136,485 $198,516 87% 83% 81% 79% 82% TSMC YoY at its top 30 7% 1% 32% 23% 22% -3% 24% 33% 38% 45% Rest of TSMC/Inventory $2,404 $3,838 $4,240 $6,235 $14,261 $9,104 $15,629 $22,936 $35,727 $42,179 13% 17% 19% 21% 18% Rest of TSMC YoY -31% 60% 10% 47% 129% -36% 72% 47% 56% 18% TSMC Sales (UBS Estimate) $33,452 $35,059 $45,422 $56,808 $76,051 $69,298 $90,184 $122,031 $172,213 $240,695 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% TSMC Overall YoY 3% 5% 30% 25% 34% -9% 30% 35% 41% 40% Source: Company data, UBS estimates Figure 4: N3 supply and demand analysis Client Products Die size (mm2) N3 capacity requirement (kwpm) Q126E Q226E Q326E Q426E 2026 demand (k) Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027 demand (k) Nvidia Rubin 1,628 0 2 15 31 141 37 40 33 19 384 Rubin Ultra 1,628 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 16 36 169 Vera CPU 800 0 1 5 11 51 11 13 17 19 178 Broadcom Google - TPU v7 Ironwood 1,400 6 11 16 21 158 14 8 6 0 85 Google - TPU v8i 1,400 0 0 2 4 18 7 17 25 35 250 Meta - MTIA v3 1,600 0 1 1 2 11 2 2 3 3 29 OpenAI 1,600 0 0 0 3 10 3 3 3 3 32 AMD MI355 840 2 2 1 1 17 1 1 0 0 7 Alchip Amazon - Trainium 3 1,600 0 4 12 23 115 24 18 12 6 181 Marvell Amazon - Trainium 2.5 1,600 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 2 MediaTek Google - TPU v8t 800 0 0 1 4 15 9 11 11 13 129 Other CPUs / accelerators and products like networking 2 4 10 20 109 22 23 25 33 310 Capacity requirement - Cloud AI (kwpm) 9 24 62 122 652 130 140 151 167 1,763 % of N3 demand 7% 18% 38% 64% 36% 69% 72% 73% 76% 73% Apple iPhone's apps processor 110 43 43 39 22 442 13 11 9 10 128 Mac's processor 165 10 10 8 7 106 7 6 6 6 74 iPad's M processor for Pro & Air 160 14 12 12 8 135 11 10 8 8 111 iPad's A17 Pro processor 104 2 2 1 1 15 3 2 2 2 30 Qualcomm Flagship smartphone SoC 120 17 13 9 3 129 5 5 4 3 51 MediaTek 5G smartphone SoC 120 5 4 3 1 39 2 2 2 1 19 Intel Outsourced PC CPUs 100 15 15 8 8 137 8 8 5 4 70 Others like Bitcoin, tablet, ARM based PC CPU 10 10 20 20 180 10 10 20 20 180 Capacity requirement - Consumer and other devices (kwpm) 116 109 100 69 1,183 60 53 55 53 663 % of N3 demand 93% 82% 62% 36% 64% 31% 28% 27% 24% 27% Total N3 demand 125 133 162 191 1,834 190 193 206 220 2,426 TSMC's N3 installed capacity 120 130 150 170 1,710 170 185 195 210 2,280 Capacity utilisation 104% 102% 108% 113% 107% 112% 104% 106% 105% 106% Source: UBS estimates Figure 5: TSMC's operating metrics Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Capacity (WPQ/Y, kpcs 8" eq.) 10,495 10,663 10,663 10,798 10,859 11,095 11,196 11,331 36,849 38,233 40,528 42,620 44,480 47,349 Sequential change (%) 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 6% 4% 6% 5% 4% 6% Shipment (WPQ/Y, kpcs 8" eq.) 9,392 9,756 10,430 10,960 11,146 11,726 12,237 12,328 27,005 29,050 33,802 40,537 47,437 53,106 Sequential change (%) 5% 4% 7% 5% 2% 5% 4% 1% -21% 8% 16% 20% 17% 12% Utilization rate (%) 89% 91% 98% 101% 103% 106% 109% 109% 73% 76% 83% 95% 107% 112% ASP (US$) 3,263 3,483 3,714 3,888 3,976 4,157 4,382 4,610 2,235 2,694 3,112 3,601 4,290 5,124 Sequential change (%) 0% 7% 7% 5% 2% 5% 5% 5% 14.8% 20.5% 15.5% 15.7% 19.1% 19.4% FX rate (NT$) 31.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 31.2 32.1 31.1 31.8 32.0 32.0 Other Revenue (NT$m) 165,991 196,673 223,114 245,425 255,242 280,766 317,422 336,467 279,218 379,846 536,501 831,203 1,189,897 1,610,868 Total Revenue (NT$m) 1,134,103 1,270,380 1,462,634 1,608,897 1,673,253 1,840,579 2,033,215 2,155,208 2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,476,015 7,702,256 10,318,264 Sequential change (%) 8% 12% 15% 10% 4% 10% 10% 6% -5% 34% 32% 44% 41% 34% Capex (US$m) 11,046 15,691 15,651 20,553 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 30,425 29,760 40,739 63,000 90,000 105,000 Capex/revenue (%) 31% 39% 34% 41% 43% 39% 35% 33% 44% 33% 33% 37% 37% 33% Depreciation (NT$mn) 5,237 6,283 6,875 7,124 7,480 8,187 8,825 9,364 16,631 20,712 21,503 25,374 33,856 45,609 Gross margin (%) 66.2% 67.7% 67.1% 67.3% 67.3% 67.4% 67.3% 67.1% 54.4% 56.1% 59.9% 67.1% 67.2% 67.8% Operating margin (%) 58.1% 60.3% 58.9% 59.1% 59.4% 59.4% 59.0% 58.9% 42.6% 45.7% 50.8% 59.1% 59.1% 60% Source: Company data, UBS estimates Figure 6: Revisions to our earnings estimates New Old Change (NT$ mn) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E Revenue 5,476,015 7,702,256 10,318,264 5,465,875 7,676,827 10,044,566 0% 0% 3% - YoY chg 44% 41% 34% 43% 40% 31% Revenue (US$ mn) 172,213 240,695 322,446 171,894 239,901 313,893 0% 0% 3% - YoY chg 41% 40% 34% 41% 40% 31% Gross profit 3,670,122 5,179,398 7,000,469 3,666,747 5,179,059 6,842,251 0% 0% 2% - Gross margin 67.0% 67.2% 67.8% 67.1% 67.5% 68.1% Operating profit 3,234,125 4,555,628 6,185,603 3,231,064 4,556,077 6,035,870 0% 0% 2% - Operating margin 59.1% 59.1% 59.9% 59.1% 59.3% 60.1% Net profit 2,827,838 3,863,186 5,251,406 2,825,270 3,867,318 5,140,175 0% 0% 2% - Net margin 51.6% 50.2% 50.9% 51.7% 50.4% 51.2% EPS (NT$) 109.06 148.98 202.52 108.96 149.14 198.23 0% 0% 2% - YoY chg 65% 37% 36% 64% 37% 33% Source: UBS estimates Figure 7: UBS earnings estimates vs. consensus UBSe Consensus Difference (NT$m) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026F 2027F 2028F 2026E 2027E 2028E Revenue 5,476,015 7,702,256 10,318,264 5,442,153 7,425,468 9,281,208 1% 4% 11% - YoY chg 44% 41% 34% 232% 36% 25% Gross profit 3,670,122 5,179,398 7,000,469 3,623,759 4,969,290 6,171,787 1% 4% 13% - Gross margin 67.0% 67.2% 67.8% 66.6% 66.9% 66.5% Operating profit 3,234,125 4,555,628 6,185,603 3,184,365 4,376,749 5,448,423 2% 4% 14% - Operating margin 59.1% 59.1% 59.9% 58.5% 58.9% 58.7% Net profit 2,827,838 3,863,186 5,251,406 2,781,683 3,744,636 4,683,452 2% 3% 12% - Net margin 51.6% 50.2% 50.9% 51.1% 50.4% 50.5% EPS (NT$) 109.06 148.98 202.52 107.15 143.59 178.69 2% 4% 13% - YoY chg 65% 37% 36% 238% 34% 24% Source: UBS estimates Figure 8: UBS earnings forecasts (NT$ mn) 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E Revenue 3,809,054 1,134,103 1,270,380 1,462,634 1,608,897 5,476,015 1,673,253 1,840,579 2,033,215 2,155,208 7,702,256 10,318,264 12,449,992 15,340,962 - YoY chg (%) 32% 35% 36% 48% 54% 44% 48% 45% 39% 34% 41% 34% 21% 23% - QoQ chg (%) - 8% 12% 15% 10% - 4% 10% 10% 6% - - - - Revenue (US$ mn) 122,031 35,898 40,202 45,707 50,278 172,213 52,289 57,518 63,538 67,350 240,695 322,446 389,062 479,405 - YoY chg (%) 35% 41% 34% 38% 49% 41% 46% 43% 39% 34% 40% 34% 21% 23% - QoQ chg (%) - 6% 12% 14% 10% - 4% 10% 10% 6% - - - - Gross profit 2,281,294 751,295 860,311 980,859 1,077,657 3,670,122 1,126,034 1,239,875 1,368,001 1,445,487 5,179,398 7,000,469 8,331,768 10,276,806 - Gross margin 59.9% 66.2% 67.7% 67.1% 67.0% 67.0% 67.3% 67.4% 67.3% 67.1% 67.2% 67.8% 66.9% 67.0% Operating profit 1,936,092 658,966 766,603 861,775 946,782 3,234,125 994,163 1,092,818 1,199,972 1,268,675 4,555,628 6,185,603 7,367,818 9,103,236 - OP margin 50.8% 58.1% 60.3% 58.9% 58.8% 59.1% 59.4% 59.4% 59.0% 58.9% 59.1% 59.9% 59.2% 59.3% Non-op profit 105,571 28,834 95,827 22,718 24,097 171,475 24,797 25,433 26,445 28,798 105,472 149,229 238,168 368,147 Pre-tax profit 2,041,663 687,800 862,430 884,493 970,878 3,405,601 1,018,960 1,118,250 1,226,417 1,297,473 4,661,100 6,334,832 7,605,986 9,471,384 Net profit 1,717,883 572,480 706,562 738,332 810,464 2,827,838 850,613 905,564 1,023,839 1,083,171 3,863,186 5,251,406 6,303,595 7,848,981 Reported EPS (NT$) 66.26 22.08 27.25 28.47 31.26 109.06 32.80 34.92 39.48 41.77 148.98 202.52 243.10 302.69 - YoY chg (%) 46% 58% 77% 63% 60% 65% 49% 28% 39% 34% 37% 36% 20% 25% - QoQ chg (%) - 13% 23% 4% 10% - 5% 6% 13% 6% - - - - Source: Company data, UBS estimates Figure 9: TSMC's 12-month forward PE band (x) ![](images/3c1b0cdbba8e03135b382bde8c5d670c8092ede2b04d84b1f28834e8b2209983.jpg) Source: LSEG, UBS Figure 10: TSMC's 12-month forward P/BV (x) ![](images/ff9033220f006b0f306edf6686f29aa531c0e49636a56b3f8a3add0ec0797651.jpg) Source: LSEG, UBS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) Income Statement (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E Revenues 2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,476,015 43.8 7,702,256 40.7 10,318,264 12,449,992 15,340,962 Gross profit 1,175,111 1,624,354 2,281,294 3,670,122 60.9 5,179,398 41.1 7,000,469 8,331,768 10,276,806 EBITDA (UBS) 1,453,657 1,984,850 2,624,188 4,046,079 54.2 5,639,022 39.4 7,645,092 9,252,469 11,414,391 Depreciation & amortisation (532,191) (662,797) (688,096) (811,954) -18.0 (1,083,394) -33.4 (1,459,489) (1,884,651) (2,311,154) EBIT (UBS) 921,466 1,322,053 1,936,092 3,234,125 67.0 4,555,628 40.9 6,185,603 7,367,818 9,103,236 Associates & investment income 4,655 4,879 5,497 3,523 -35.9 800 -77.3 800 800 800 Other non-operating income 10,704 11,125 13,868 75,529 NM 706 -99.1 706 706 706 Net interest 42,347 67,781 86,206 92,423 7.2 103,966 12.5 147,723 236,662 366,641 Exceptionals (incl goodwill) 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 979,171 1,405,839 2,041,663 3,405,601 66.8 4,661,100 36.9 6,334,832 7,605,986 9,471,384 Tax (141,404) (233,407) (326,266) (576,784) -76.8 (797,038) -38.2 (1,082,550…

2027E capex raised to US$90bn from US$80bn (US$10bn increase)；2028E capex raised to US$105bn from US$95bn (US$10bn increase)

{"visible_text": "SpaceX 正在全速建设 Terafab。该项目于3月启动，4月前就已下达设备订单，目前现场已开始浇筑混凝土。(1/5)\n\nFab Buildout Schedule\nTerafab Austin Development Fab: Construction 15, Tools 6\nTerafab Grimes Phase 1: Construction 20, Tools 17, Volume 6\nTSMC Fab 21 P1: Construction 20, Tools 17, Volume 6\nIntel Fab 52: Construction 29, Tools 20, Volume 4\nSamsung Taylor Fab 1: Construction 47, Tools 5, Volume 9\n\n我们相信，Terafab Grimes 一期项目的建设速度将与台积电亚利桑那州 Fab 21 P1 项目（目前美国速度最快的尖端晶圆厂）持平，甚至可能更快。我们预计设备将于 2028 年中期投入使用，并于 2030 年中期实现量产。(2/5)\n\n与 Intel 14A 相比，光刻和工艺控制在 Terafab 的 WFE 中占比更高，因为 25k wspm 的模块需要更多的扫描仪，而且新工艺操作员需要对转移的工艺样品进行更多验证。(3/5)\n\nASML、KLA、AMAT 和 Lam 受益最大。(4/5)\n\n更多详情，请订阅我们的 WFE 模型 (5/5)\nWafer Fab Equipment Model", "image_type": "Social media screenshot (X/Twitter thread)", "companies": ["SpaceX", "TSMC", "Intel", "Samsung", "ASML", "KLA", "AMAT (Applied Materials)", "Lam Research"], "industries": ["半导体制造", "晶圆厂建设", "半导体设备 (WFE)", "航空航天/卫星通信"], "key_numbers": {"Terafab_Austin_Development_Fab": {"construction": 15, "tools_to_wafer": 6}, "Terafab_Grimes_Phase_1": {"construction": 20, "tools_to_wafer": 17, "first_wafer_to_volume": 6}, "TSMC_Fab_21_P1": {"construction": 20, "tools_to_wafer": 17, "first_wafer_to_volume": 6}, "Intel_Fab_52": {"construction": 29, "tools_to_wafer": 20, "first_wafer_to_volume": 4}, "Samsung_Taylor_Fab_1": {"construction": 47, "tools_to_wafer": 5, "first_wafer_to_volume": 9}, "wspm_target": "25k", "equipment_ready": "2028年中", "volume_production": "2030年中", "project_launch": "3月启动", "orders_placed": "4月前", "engagement": "80.4K Views, 805 Likes, 230 Bookmarks"}, "table_data": [["Fab名称", "建设到设备安装(月)", "设备到首片晶圆(月)", "首片到量产(月)", "总周期(月)"], ["Terafab Austin Development Fab", 15, 6, "-", 21], ["Terafab Grimes Phase 1", 20, 17, 6, 43], ["TSMC Fab 21 P1", 20, 17, 6, 43], ["Intel Fab 52", 29, 20, 4, 53], ["Samsung Taylor Fab 1", 47, 5, 9, 61]], "chart_insights": "堆叠条形图展示五个美国先进晶圆厂的建设时间表。Samsung Taylor Fab 1 建设周期最长(47个月)，但设备到首片晶圆仅5个月。Intel Fab 52 总周期最长约53个月。Terafab Grimes Phase 1 与 TSMC Fab 21 P1 节奏几乎一致(43个月)，SemiAnalysis认为 Terafab 可能更快。Terafab Austin Development Fab 周期最短(21个月)，为开发型fab。", "key_information": ["SpaceX 正在全速建设 Terafab 半导体晶圆厂", "项目3月启动，4月前已下达设备订单，现场已开始浇筑混凝土", "Terafab Grimes 一期建设速度被认为可与 TSMC 亚利桑那 Fab 21 P1 持平甚至更快", "预计设备 2028 年中投入使用，2030 年中实现量产", "Terafab 光刻和工艺控制占 WFE 比重高于 Intel 14A", "目标产能 25k wspm（wafers per start per month）", "主要受益的设备厂商：ASML、KLA、AMAT、Lam Research"], "source_date_clues": {"post_date": "2026年9月29日 3:01 AM", "reference_dates": "项目3月启动、4月下达订单（暗示2026年）", "future_milestones": "2028年中设备就绪、2030年中量产"}, "research_relevance": "高度相关。SpaceX 进入半导体制造是重大产业变化，Terafab 计划影响 WFE（晶圆制造设备）供应链格局。对 ASML/KLA/AMAT/Lam 是利好。该项目时间表、产能目标（25k wspm）及与 Intel/TSMC/Samsung 对比为半导体板块投资决策提供重要参考。"}

SpaceX Terafab项目进入实质建设阶段，现场已开始浇筑混凝土；Terafab Grimes一期建设节奏对标甚至超越TSMC亚利桑那Fab 21 P1