“GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY # Global Data Center Capacity update: Increasing capacity estimates We update our global data center capacity forecasts using the latest data from 451 Research's database, and we now forecast 273GW of global data center supply by 2030 (v. 217GW prior from our la…”
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GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY # Global Data Center Capacity update: Increasing capacity estimates We update our global data center capacity forecasts using the latest data from 451 Research's database, and we now forecast 273GW of global data center supply by 2030 (v. 217GW prior from our last update in July 2026), representing 170GW of additional capacity after 2025 and 2026/27/28 net additions of 25GW/32GW/35GW. The increase is mostly a result of scaling up 451 Research's outer year forecasts to account for projects that have not been announced yet as we do not expect the pace of net additions to moderate in the medium-term. This addition of 170GW would represent \$8.5 tn of capex over 5-years, assuming a \$50B/GW rule-of-thumb while acknowledging that IT infrastructure costs continue to see upward pressure. For the US alone, we forecast 152GW of capacity by 2030 (v. 125GW prior), representing 103 GW of additional capacity post 2025. While the increase was predominantly due to higher outer year estimates as we scale up our estimates for unannounced projects, the increase was also partly driven by cloud/neocloud/crypto/wholesale/retail net adds (+11.8 GW in new cumulative net adds from 2026-2030), which we believe reflects the rapid scaling of neocloud providers to support GPU demand. We expect High-Performance Computing (HPC) data centers (which are typically associated with AI-workflows) to drive the majority of capacity net additions in the U.S., with projects >=75 MW accounting for 75% of net adds by 2028. The total US 5-year cumulative net additions of 103 GW of capacity would represent \$5.2 bn of capex, assuming a \$50B/GW rule-of-thumb. We see this capex covered by current consensus expectations for U.S. hyperscaler capex (\~\$1.51 tn/year on average), which has historically been revised higher and does not include private AI lab capex, and data center platform capex, although it does not exclude international capex. We recognize rising execution risk of building and delivering data centers from power supply issues, regulatory uncertainty, and high leverage. That said, we still see potential for sustained, outsized growth in capacity through projects with high visibility into power and permitting. Michael Ng, CFA +1(212)902-8618 | michael.ng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Lindsey Shema +1(212)902-6506 | lindsey.shema@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Singer, CFA +1(212)902-8259 | brian.singer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brendan Corbett +1(415)249-7440 | brendan.corbett@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Lizzy Xie +1(212)357-3206 | lizzy.xie@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ## Increasing global data center capacity to 273 GW by 2030 (v. 217 GW prior) We update our global data center capacity forecasts using the latest updates to 451 Research's data center tracker (through C2Q26). Using 451 Research data center project tracking, we now expect \~273 GW of live global data center capacity by 2030, implying growth from \~103 GW in 2025 at a 21% 2025-2030 CAGR. This +170 GW of capacity net addition over the next 5 years implies \~\$8.5 tn of cumulative capex at an assumed \$50 bn/GW (all-in), which is above the forecast average \~\$1.51 tn U.S. hyperscaler capex (per annum, using Visible Alpha Consensus Data). However, this historically has been revised higher and does not include international hyperscalers (e.g. Alibaba, Tencent), private AI lab capex, and data center platform capex. 2Q26 451 Research forecasts for global data center capacity net adds were revised upwards v. our 1Q26 update by 8% in 2026 and by 14% in 2027 and 2028. We scale-up 451 Research's outer year forecasts to adjust for projects that have not been announced. Global data center capacity additions should predominantly be from HPC data centers (projects >=75MW scaling to \~66% of global net adds by 2028) and be located in the US (\~60-70% of total global net adds through 2030). Exhibit 1: Global Data Center Capacity should scale to \~273 GW by 2030 (+170 GW v. 2025) Gloabl Data Center Capacity (MWs) & year-over-year change (%)  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 2: Global Data Center Capacity forecasts for 2026-2030 have been raised significantly over time (+11% on average v. 1Q26, +17% on average v. 4Q25, and +26% v. 3Q25 Global Data Center Capacity forecast estimates over time (MW)  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 3: Global data center capacity net adds should be predominantly from projects >=75MW, which are typically associated with High-Performance Computing data centers and AI workflows  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 4: Global data center capacity net adds should predominantly be in North America Share of global data center capacity net adds by region (%)  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 5: Greater visibility into APAC net adds, while Europe sees increased net adds in the outer years Net add revisions v. 1Q26  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research For the US alone, we forecast 152GW of capacity by 2030 (v. 125GW prior), representing 103GW of additional capacity post 2025. 2Q26 451 Research forecasts for US data center capacity net adds were revised upwards by 2% in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 12% in 2028 v. 1Q26. We scale-up 451 Research's outer year forecasts to adjust for projects that have not been announced and increase our US net add estimates by 56% in 2029 and 180% in 2030 v. our last update. The change was largely driven by cloud/neocloud/crypto/wholesale/retail net adds (+11.8 GW in new cumulative net adds from 2026-2030), which we believe reflects the rapid scaling of neocloud providers to support GPU demand. Forecasted US hyperscaler net adds also saw a cumulative upward revision of 9.4 GW from 2026-2030. We expect HPC data centers to drive the majority of capacity net additions in the U.S., with projects >=75 MW accounting for 75% of net adds by 2028. Exhibit 6: US data center capacity should grow to \~152 GW by 2030 (+103 GW from 2025) US data center capacity (MW) & year-over-year change (%); end of period capacity  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 7: US capacity net add forecasts have been revised upwards over time (51% on average v. 1Q26, 69% v. 4Q25, and 102% v. 3Q25 US net add forecasts (MW)  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 8: US cloud/neocloud/crypto/wholesale/retail net adds saw the most upward revisions US net add revisions v. 1Q26  US Other includes interconnect, powered shell, reseller, system integrator, and telco Exhibit 9: Projects >=75 MW should account for 75% of net adds by 2028  Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: 451 Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 10: AI/Cloud player spend should grow to \~\$1.74 trillion by 2030 at a 31% 2025-2030 CAGR Consensus capex estimates on select AI players/Cloud players (\$, mn) Select US cloud 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E AAPL 10,264 12,033 10,664 12,967 14,024 15,074 15,469 AMZN 82,999 131,819 228,406 300,605 335,093 342,771 345,751 META 37,256 69,691 138,411 214,307 234,266 234,337 244,428 GOOGL 52,535 91,447 201,011 331,600 379,322 385,748 394,791 MSFT 54,514 90,250 155,010 213,051 244,948 262,221 267,938 ORCL 14,041 38,439 74,557 100,146 96,286 83,529 73,370 SPCX 5,633 12,712 74,452 298,100 315,000 334,401 342,992 CRWV 8,702 10,309 35,666 47,387 47,950 50,887 58,028 Total capex ($, mn) 265,944 456,699 918,177 1,518,163 1,666,889 1,708,969 1,742,766 Year-over-year growth 57% 72% 101% 65% 10% 3% 2% Estimates as of 10/30/2026 We recognize rising execution risk of building and delivering data centers from power supply issues, regulatory uncertainty, and high leverage. That said, we still see potential for sustained, outsized growth in capacity through high visibility projects. A key area of investor push-back to our data center capacity model has been that our estimates are conservative which we attribute to a higher barrier to entry for a project's inclusion in 451 Research's pipeline. Accordingly, we expect the increased execution risk to disproportionately impact projects that were not originally considered in our forecasts. Power supply constraints. Recently, Microsoft exited a lease commitment due to a delayed RFS date as a result of power supply issues (see WSJ article from 10/19/2026) and Oracle's New Mexico project has faced challenges over power supply permitting (see WSJ article from 9/25/2026). The ability to have visibility into secured power is becoming more important as a result. Community concerns. We have received a rising volume of investor questions regarding potential delays related to the data center directives by governors in Texas and Pennsylvania, both of which effectively paused their respective fast-track approval processes. We view the primary burden falling on speculative builds, although we flag ongoing headline risk and the potential for slower project development. The GS Sustain team recently authored a report detailing the key areas of community push back to data center development, along with potential mitigating solutions. The team noted that the solutions may not fully allay community concerns, where perception of the societal and/or economic impacts of AI, transparency of the individual data center development process and broader NIMBY push back could supersede innovation/solutions. \- High leverage. HPC data center construction is typically highly levered (80-90% loan-to-cost) which means returns are highly sensitive to compression in the debt yield spread. We continue to monitor further pressure on hyperscaler bond yields, and on industry yields from increased headline delays. We foresee increased focus on lease duration and credit-quality of the tenant with data center asset as a response to rising cost of credit, with asset-backed debt from high quality data center projects providing access to 15-30 year contracted cash flows from investment-grade tenants. In addition, once projects mature, capital recycling offers developers a path to monetize existing projects to finance new development at a lower cost of capital. Exhibit 11: Summary of the key areas of community push back to data center development with potential mitigating solutions Perceived Risks Rationale Regional Variability Mitigating Solutions Power Outages Greater power demand can = greater grid stress Fairly ubiquitous concern Data center agrees to power interruptions if necessary; behind-the-meter capacity * Higher Power Prices Greater utility capex or tightening power supply/ demand can = higher rates Fairly ubiquitous concern Take-or-pay tariff structures; capacity market reform; behind the meter capacity * Drain on Water Supply Cooling modern data centers can be water intensive Less of a concern in areas of water abundance Closed-loop, waterless or less water-intensive cooling systems Noise Pollution HVAC & onsite power gen increase local ambient noise Most acute in landscapes with proximity between DCs and residences. Zoning adjustments, acoustic barriers, sound-dampening fans Localized Warming Thermal output of datacenters can ↑ local heat stress Less of a concern in cold climates or where heat recycling infrastructure exists Waste heat capture for district heating or other recycling solutions, where possible \* ongoing debate on the long-term efficacy of behind-the-meter solutions Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, GS Sustain Please reach out via email for a copy of our global data center capacity model. ## Disclosure Appendix ## Reg AC We, Michael Ng, CFA, Lindsey Shema, Brian Singer, CFA, Brendan Corbett and Lizzy Xie, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. 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