“# Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. | Asia Pacific # 3Q26 Call Key Takeaways ## Key Takeaways Captive bauxite expansion remains a strategic priority, with a target of $>100\%$ self-sufficiency by 2030. Brazil aluminum acquisition anti-trust approvals are complete, its low-carbon elect…”
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# Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. | Asia Pacific # 3Q26 Call Key Takeaways ## Key Takeaways Captive bauxite expansion remains a strategic priority, with a target of $>100\%$ self-sufficiency by 2030. Brazil aluminum acquisition anti-trust approvals are complete, its low-carbon electricity offers a potential competitive advantage. Management remains constructive on aluminum prices through 2027, forecasting an average domestic aluminum price of Rmb21,500–23,000/t in 2027. Demand growth from AI, energy storage, and robotics should help offset weakness in property and solar. Dividend payout ratios increased from $37\%$ in 2025 to $40\%$ in 1H26, with management targeting stable dividend growth. Chalco's alumina business turned profitable in 3Q26 after recording a loss of approximately Rmb200mn in 1H26, supported by a rising proportion of captive bauxite supply and cost reductions. Alumina production increased QoQ in response to improved profitability. Chalco's Guinea bauxite production is expected to grow approximately 30% YoY in 2026, Chalco currently ranks among the world's top three bauxite resource holders, with approximately 2.7bn tonnes of resources. Captive bauxite production is expected to reach 45Mt in 2026, rising to 60–70Mt by 2030. Management aims to achieve full bauxite self-sufficiency while maintaining external sales of 5–6Mtpa. Cost discipline, green power investment, and stable dividend growth remain priorities. Aluminum production is operating at full capacity, with stable unit costs in 3Q26. Alumina unit costs declined Rmb40–50/t, while power costs fell over 9M26. Management maintained its 2026 capex guidance at Rmb15bn and indicated that no further major impairment charges are expected. MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Rachel L Zhang Equity Analyst Rachel.Zhang@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1520 Hannah Yang, CFA Equity Analyst Hannah.Yang1@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7079 Chris Jiang Equity Analyst Chris.Jiang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1593 Cynthia Tang Research Associate Cynthia.Tang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4360 Lucas Liu Research Associate Lucas.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1135  Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 November 2026. ## Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (2600.HK, 2600 HK) Stock Rating Overweight Industry View Attractive Price target HK$10.40 Up/downside to price target (%) 50 Shr price, close (Oct 29, 2026) HK$6.92 Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb134,596 EV, curr (mn) Rmb199,200 Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$562 Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e EPS (Rmb)** 0.74 1.30 0.94 0.99 Prior EPS (Rmb)** - - - - EPS (Rmb)§ 0.84 1.28 1.12 1.08 Revenue, net (Rmb bn) 241 255 234 230 EBITDA (Rmb bn) 41 64 48 50 ModelWare net inc (Rmb bn) 13 22 16 17 P/E 14.8 4.5 6.2 6.0 P/BV 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 RNOA (%) 16.6 28.3 18.8 19.3 ROE (%) 18.3 29.7 18.1 17.0 EV/EBITDA 6.5 3.0 3.8 3.5 Div yld (%) 2.4 8.1 5.9 6.1 FCF yld ratio (%) 8.9 14.6 13.1 12.5 Leverage (EOP) (%) 39.1 8.1 (12.9) (29.5) Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework \*\* = Based on consensus methodology § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. ## For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. ## Valuation Methodology and Risks ## Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (2600.HK) Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: A cost of equity of 12.1% (as calculated from a 1.3 beta, 2.3% risk-free rate and 7.5% equity risk premium), a steady-state growth rate of 2% and long-term ROE of 11.0%. ## Risks to Upside ■ Demand is better than we expect. ■ Supply cut is greater than we expect. ## Risks to Downside ■ Faster-than-expected production resumption. ■ Faster commencement of new swapped capacity. ■ Weaker-than-expected demand. ## Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (601600.SS) We derive our A-share price target by applying a 10% premium to our H-share price target, and adjusting for our estimated CNYHKD exchange rate of 1.14. ## Risks to Upside ■ Demand is better than we expect. ■ Supply cut is greater than we expect. ## Risks to Downside ■ Faster-than-expected production resumption. ■ Faster commencement of new swapped capacities. ■ Weaker-than-expected demand. ## Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. 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Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA. ## Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Chris Jiang; Hannah Yang, CFA; Rachel L Zhang. ## Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/ . A Portuguese version of the policy can be found at www.morganstanley.com.br ## Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies As of September 30, 2026, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., Anhui Honglu Steel Construction, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Techn, China Lesso Group Holdings Ltd, CMOC Group Ltd, CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd., Flat Glass Group Co Ltd, Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., Henan Liliang Diamond Co. Ltd, Jiangxi Copper, Jiujiang Defu Technology Co., Limited, JL Mag Rare-Earth Co. Ltd, Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd, Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co Ltd, Sinomine Resource Group Co Ltd, Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., Yongxing Special Materials Technology, Zijin Mining Group. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd., MMG Ltd, PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., MMG Ltd, PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Techn, CMOC Group Ltd, CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd., Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., Jiangxi Copper, MMG Ltd, PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk, Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co Ltd, Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., Zhaojin Mining Industry, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd, Zijin Gold International, Zijin Mining Group. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Baoshan Iron & Steel, China Steel Corp., CMOC Group Ltd, Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., Xinyi Glass Holding Limited, Zijin Mining Group. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company: Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Techn, CMOC Group Ltd, CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd., Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., Jiangxi Copper, MMG Ltd, PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk, Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co Ltd, Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., Zhaojin Mining Industry, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd, Zijin Gold International, Zijin Mining Group. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: Baoshan Iron & Steel, China Steel Corp., CMOC Group Ltd, CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd., Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., Xinyi Glass Holding Limited, Zijin Gold International, Zijin Mining Group. The equity research analysts or strategists principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues. 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Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions. ## STOCK RATINGS Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated or Underweight (see definitions below). Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold and sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. ## Global Stock Ratings Distribution (as of September 30, 2026) The Stock Ratings described below apply to Morgan Stanley's Fundamental Equity Research and do not apply to Debt Research produced by the Firm. For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with FINRA requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight and Not-Rated to hold and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively. Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC) Other Material Investment Services Clients (MISC) Stock Rating Category Count % of Total Count % of Total IBC % of Rating Category Count % of Total Other MISC Overweight/Buy 1599 43% 455 48% 28% 783 44% Equal-weight/Hold 1563 42% 394 42% 25% 763 43% Not-Rated/Hold 2 0% 1 0% 50% 1 0% Underweight/Sell 570 15% 96 10% 17% 227 13% Total 3,734 946 1774 Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months. Due to rounding off of decimals, the percentages provided in the "% of total" column may not add up to exactly 100 percent. ## Analyst Stock Ratings Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Not-Rated (NR). Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months. ## Analyst Industry Views Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index. ## Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions) 12/16/24 : 5.5; 3/20/25 : 7; 3/27/25 : 7.1; 4/23/25 : 6.2; 7/15/25 : 7.2; 10/8/25 : 9.3; 11/19/25 : 15.1; 3/19/26 : 17.7; 4/14/26 : 18.1; 7/8/26 : 11.2; 10/7/26 : 10.4 9/25/24 : 10.3; 12/16/24 : 8.7; 3/20/25 : 9.1; 3/27/25 : 9.2; 4/23/25 : 8; 7/15/25 : 9.3; 10/8/25 : 9.5; 11/19/25 : 15.4; 3/19/26 : 17.1; 4/14/26 : 17.5; 7/8/26 : 10.8; 10/7/26 : 10 Stock Price (Not Covered by Current Analyst) — Stock Price (Covered by Current Analyst) Source: Morgan Stanley Research Date Format : MM/DD/YY Price Target No Price Target Assigned (NA) Price Target History: 9/30/21 : 8.1; 11/3/21 : 7.5; 12/9/21 : 6.6; 4/8/22 : 6; 7/13/22 : 4; 9/15/22 : 4.6; 4/25/23 : 6; 5/3/23 : 6.2; 6/26/23 : 4.6; 8/25/23 : 4.9; 9/21/23 : 5.6; 12/14/23 : 5.7; 4/9/24 : 6.1; 4/30/24 : 6.4; 5/28/24 : 7.5; 9/25/24 : 7.1; Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (2600.HK) - As of 10/30/26 GMT in HKD Industry : Greater China Materials  ## Stock Rating History: 10/1/21 : 0/A Source: Morgan Stanley Research Date Format: MM/DD/YY Price Target No Price Target Assigned (NA) Stock and Industry Ratings (abbreviations below) appear as ♦ Stock Rating/Industry View Stock Ratings: Overweight (O) Equal-weight (E) Underweight (U) Not-Rated (NR) No Rating Available (NA) Industry View: Attractive (A) In-line (I) Cautious (C) No Rating (NR) Effective January 13, 2014, the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific will be rated relative to the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage. Effective January 13, 2014, the industry view benchmarks for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific are as follows: relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (601600.SS) - As of 10/30/26 GMT in CNY Industry : Greater China Materials  ## Stock Rating History: 10/1/21 : 0/A Price Target History: 9/30/21 : 10.3; 11/3/21 : 9.6; 12/9/21 : 8.4; 4/8/22 : 7.6; 7/13/22 : 6.3; 9/15/22 : 7.2; 4/25/23 : 9.4; 5/3/23 : 9.7; 6/26/23 : 7.2; 8/25/23 : 7.7; 9/21/23 : 8.8; 12/14/23 : 8.2; 4/9/24 : 8.8; 4/30/24 : 9.2; 5/28/24 : 10.8; Stock Price (Not Covered by Current Analyst) — Stock Price (Covered by Current Analyst) Stock and Industry Ratings (abbreviations below) appear as ♦ Stock Rating/Industry View Stock Ratings: Overweight (O) Equal-weight (E) Underweight (U) Not-Rat…
AI 解读
3Q26电话会披露氧化铝业务在1H26亏损约人民币2亿元后实现盈利，并同步更新了自有铝土矿扩张、2030年超过100%自给率、几内亚产量增长及维持外部销售规模的目标。巴西铝资产收购的反垄断审批已经完成，公司还首次给出2027年国内铝价每吨人民币21,500至23,000元的预测区间，并提出维持稳定分红增长。