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October 30, 2026 02:06 PM GMT # KIOXIA Holdings (285A) | Japan # Sep-Q Results: Pause in Dec-Q, Reacceleration in Mar-Q AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Unchanged Impact to our thesis ↓ Modest shortfall Financial results versus consensus ↓ Modest revision lower Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Dec-Q guidance was a negative surprise, but data center demand remains strong. We maintain an OW rating. Sep-Q results (Non-GAAP): GB shipments rose by low-teens QoQ, GB ASP in US\$ terms increased by a mid-20% range QoQ, sales were ¥2.48tn (QoQ+40%), gross margin after JV transaction adjustments 86.7% (QoQ+4.7ppt), and operating profit ¥1.99trn. GB shipments exceeded the company's outlook three months ago for high-single-digit QoQ growth, as it responded to customer pull-in demand. Blended ASP rose by a mid-20% range QoQ, or low-30% on a like-for-like basis. Operating profit was around the low end of market expectations of roughly ¥2.0–2.1trn. Dec-Q guidance (Non-GAAP): Assuming US\$1.0 = ¥157, company guidance calls for sales of ¥2.5trn (QoQ +1%) and operating profit of ¥2.0trn. GB shipments are expected to remain roughly flat QoQ due to pull-in shipments in Sep-Q and some data center/enterprise SSD shipments with long TAT shifting into Mar-Q. The company expects pricing to continue rising, particularly for data center/enterprise SSDs, but a higher smart-device mix is expected to limit blended ASP growth in US\$ terms to low-single digits. However, pricing for roughly half of Dec-Q GB volume is still under negotiation. The company also expects GB shipments to increase in Mar-Q 2027 and said “growth momentum will accelerate.” CY27/28 outlook: The company's CY27 capacity has already been allocated (sold out), while for CY28, multi-year LTAs cover well over $50\%$ of GB shipments. Contract terms differ by customer, but generally include floor prices without ceiling prices. However, the company is not prioritizing customer prepayments. Shareholder returns: The company announced an interim dividend equivalent to ¥30/share on a post-stock-split basis. It also newly announced a policy to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders from 2H FY3/27 onward. Our take: Dec-Q guidance was a negative surprise, but mix is a major factor. In Mar-Q, we expect a higher data center/enterprise SSD mix, which should provide upside to ASP. We plan to review our forecasts. MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.+ Kazuo Yoshikawa, CFA Equity Analyst Kazuo.Yoshikawa@ g.com +81 3 6836-8408 Hidetaka Suzuki Research Associate Hidetaka.Suzuki@ g.com +81 3 6836-8402 KIOXIA Holdings (285A.T, 285A JP) Top Pick Japan Semiconductors | Japan Stock Rating Overweight Industry View In-Line Price target ¥37,000 Shr price, close (Oct 30, 2026) ¥13,470 Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥22,145.3 DPS (03/27e) ¥300.0 ROE (03/27e) (%)* 356.4 P/BV, basic (03/27e) 4.2 P/E, basic (03/27e)* 4.4 EV/EBITDA, basic (03/27e) 2.4 \* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. ## Valuation Methodology and Risks ## KIOXIA Holdings (285A.T) FY3/28e FCF yield of approximately 10%: Considering the company's strong FCF outlook, its shareholder return policy, and the significant growth potential driven by AI inference, we believe that an FCF yield of around 10% should provide sufficient support for the share price. Implied P/E of our target price based on our FY3/28 EPS forecast is 10x. ## Risks to Upside Greater-than-expected improvement in NAND flash S/D on AI-driven growth in end demand and supply-side adjustments SSD market share gains ## Risks to Downside Longer-than-expected deterioration in NAND S/D on declining end demand, capacity expansion by Chinese companies Japanese yen appreciation (we estimate one yen appreciation against US\$ lowers OP by about Y6bn annually) ## Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). 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Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions) KIOXIA Holdings (285A.T) - As of 10/30/26 GMT in JPY Industry : Japan Semiconductors ![](images/4f7272a633c1b876abaf386ab26feabc537cd7f37cf1c980094a189ea8adc2a7.jpg) Stock Rating History: 1/20/25 : E/I; 8/12/25 : 0/I Price Target History: 1/20/25 : 700; 5/15/25 : 633.33; 6/6/25 : 733.33; 8/12/25 : 966.67; 9/11/25 : 1300; 10/1/25 : 1833.33; 11/14/25 : 4666.66; 2/12/26 : 10999.99; 5/18/26 : 23333.31; 6/2/26 : 36666.63; 9/30/26 : 37000 Source: Morgan Stanley Research Date Format : MM/DD/YY Price Target No Price Target Assigned (NA) Stock Price (Not Covered by Current Analyst) — Stock Price (Covered by Current Analyst) Stock Ratings: Overweight (O) Equal-weight (E) Underweight (U) Not-Rated (NR) No Rating Available (NA) Industry View: Attractive (A) In-line (I) Cautious (C) No Rating (NR) Effective January 13, 2014, the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific will be rated relative to the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage. 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