“EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY ## WFE imports -6% y-y in Sep 2026 and -4% y-y in 1-9M26 YTD WFE y-y decline likely indicating domestic vendor share gains; north and east chipmaking hubs' imports increasing; Liaoning imports surged driven by SK Hynix, Dalian In September, China imported USD4.…”
关联内容单元 #10523 · 原始来源原始全文
EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY ## WFE imports -6% y-y in Sep 2026 and -4% y-y in 1-9M26 YTD WFE y-y decline likely indicating domestic vendor share gains; north and east chipmaking hubs' imports increasing; Liaoning imports surged driven by SK Hynix, Dalian In September, China imported USD4.7bn of wafer fab equipment (WFE) with a $6\%$ y-y decrease. In the first nine months (1-9M26), China WFE imports were down $4\%$ y-y. In the month, plasma etch, CVD, heat treatment, ion implantation and materials removal recorded y-y increase. Demand also shifted towards north and east chipmaking hubs: in 1-9M26, Shanghai and Beijing accounted for $59\%$ of imports versus $36\%$ same period a year ago, while Guangdong's proportion was down to $8\%$ (from $29\%$ in 1-9M25). ## The September data tells: \- YTD WFE imports declining y-y. September's -6% y-y and 1-9M26 -4% y-y both indicate China's WFE imports have been decreasing. We attribute this mainly to: (1) high base effect in 2023-2025, when most equipment types saw increased imports in three consecutive years; and (2) market share gains of domestic players. \- Japan and the Netherlands still dominate. Japan was September's largest supplier at USD951mn (-7% y-y, 20% share). The Netherlands is now the second-largest supplier at USD933mn (-28% y-y, 20% share), with lithography scanners taking the largest share. Singapore accounted for USD810m (-21% y-y) followed by Malaysia at USD750m (+41% y-y). \- The US direct share fell, but US tools continued to be imported. Direct US imports were USD249m (-36% y-y), cutting the share from 7.9% of total imports a year ago to 5.4%. Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, which are the Asian transshipment hubs of the US vendors, together reached 41.6% from 34.9% same period a year ago. \- The focus is moving toward north and east China. Shanghai took USD11.5bn in 1-9M26 (+35% y-y), with its share rising to 41% (from 29% same period a year ago). Beijing reached USD4.9bn in 1-9M26 (+148% y-y), with the share up to 18% (from 7%). Guangdong fell to USD2.3bn, from USD8.3bn a year ago (-73% y-y). Shandong, Hubei, Anhui and Shaanxi recorded declined share too . \- Liaoning saw importsvalue surge. Its imports value increased to USD691mn in 1-9M26 (versus USD105mn in 1-9M25, representing a \~560% y-y increase), dry etch and CVD taking the bulk of imports, likely driven by SK Hynix (000660 KS, Buy) Dalian Phase 2 starting to take tools. \- Falling imports in Guangdong, Hubei and Anhui may not necessarily indicate a slowdown in equipment purchase or capacity expansion, in our view, as it could indicate market share gains of domestic vendors. We believe the key developments to watch in the rest of the year are: (1) lithography (mainly scanners) imports in Shanghai and Guangdong, which should indicate the advanced process capacity build-out, and (2) equipment imports to Hubei and Anhui, which would indicate YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies Co; unlisted) and CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies; 688825 CH, Buy) capacity build-out. We maintain our positive view on the China WFE industry. In our Anchor report “China Semiconductor Equipment and Materials” (published on 7 Oct 2026), we forecast China WFE market to grow 27% y-y in 2026F, and then grow 32% y-y in 2027F, driven mainly by capacity build-out and ramp up in memory and advanced logic process. China’s semiconductor localization rate and equipment self-sufficiency rate are still low, and we see Chinese WFE vendors as the major beneficiaries of localization push and demand surge. Our top picks are Piotech (688072 CH, Buy) and AMEC (688012 CH, Buy). ## Research Analysts Semiconductor Clint Su, CFA - NIHK clint.su@nomura.com +852 2252 2154 Donnie Teng - NIHK donnie.teng@nomura.com +852 2252 1439 ## China WFE imports overview Fig. 1: China WFE imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 2: China WFE imports split by category (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 3: China WFE imports split by category (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 4: China WFE imports value y-y by category (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 5: China WFE imports value y-y by category (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 6: China WFE imports split by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 7: China WFE imports split by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 8: China WFE imports value y-y by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 9: China WFE importsvalue y-y by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 10: China WFE imports percentage by imports source  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 11: WFE imports source regions and important suppliers Region 1-9M26 share Primary vendors, sites, equipment types Netherlands ~20% ASML: HQ in Veldhoven (EUV & DUV lithography final assembly) — EUV (TWINSCAN NXE series, high-end DUV (NXT:1980Di immersion scanners). Japan ~22% Tokyo Electron: Yamanashi/Tokyo — track, etch, clean, CVD;SCREEN: Kyoto — cleaning;Kokusai Electric: Hitachi — ALD, furnaces;Canon: Hachioji — KrF/i-line steppers;Nikon: Yokohama — KrF/ArF dry scanners;DISCO: Tokyo — dicing, grinding);Advantest: Tokyo — SoC/memory testers; Singapore ~22% ASMPT: HQ in Singapore — advanced packaging: TCB bonder, wafer-level molding, hybrid bonder, SMT;Applied Materials: Singapore plant — PVD/CVD/CMP/inspection assembly;KLA: Singapore plant — defect inspection, metrology;ASML: Singapore — e-beam inspection, YieldStar; Malaysia ~10% Lam Research: Penang / Bayan Lepas — etch chambers, CMP subsystems, wafer-handling modules;Besi: advanced packaging;Advantest: Penang site — SoC/memory testers; US ~8% Applied Materials: Santa Clara, CA HQ — PVD/CVD/etch/CMP/inspection, full front-end;Lam Research: Fremont, CA — etch, CMP, clean;KLA: Milpitas, CA — inspection, metrology, e-beam; Korea ~5% SEMES: Samsung subsidiary — HBM tools, cleaning, coaters-developers, single-wafer wet;Hanmi: advanced packagingKCTech: test handlers, probe stations;AP Tech: (chemical cleaning); Taiwan region ~7% Local vendors: Wet processes, automation, inspection;Taiwan as a transshipment or trade hub of overseas giants (components, structural parts); Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Company data, Nomura research Fig. 12: Imports value growth rate matrix, destinations vs source regions and category Shanghai Beijing Guangdong Shandong Anhui Sichuan Jiangsu Hubei Fujian Shaanxi Zhejiang Other Subtotal By import source Single month (Sep-26) m-m % Overall WFE 28.9% 64.9% 295.6% 2.5% -60.7% -64.9% 159.1% 287.3% 0.6% -26.1% 3.5% -17.6% 26.1% Netherlands 2.9% 191.6% n.a. n.a. -46.5% n.a. 750.7% 628.8% n.a. -66.2% n.a. -99.5% 1.5% Japan -8.0% 66.9% 225.9% -40.0% -35.5% -31.4% 168.1% 71.2% 8.6% -12.2% -47.3% 28.7% 24.1% Singapore 27.1% 144.5% 722.1% n.a. n.a. -88.0% -14.8% 49.2% n.a. 5128.2% 67.7% 61.6% 39.6% Malaysia 156.1% 119.5% 820.3% n.a. n.a. -46.1% -13.9% n.a. n.a. -14.6% -54.3% -26.3% 76.7% US -33.4% -6.6% 178.9% n.a. n.a. 239.2% 236.6% 7118.0% n.a. -1.0% -60.3% 1919.8% -11.1% Taiwan region 108.0% 16.8% -57.1% 97.6% -63.4% -11.3% 8.1% 1906.0% -88.7% n.a. 30.9% n.a. 21.5% Korea 1972.1% -22.8% -58.5% n.a. 86.0% -23.2% 77.3% n.a. n.a. -61.4% 221.9% 77.3% 33.3% Germany -15.1% 9.0% 35.9% n.a. n.a. n.a. -35.7% 134.1% 1503.7% 197.5% 93.5% 15697.5% 57.5% Other 33.7% 22.5% 345.5% 64.6% n.a. -71.9% 258.5% 2468.4% -38.7% n.a. 227.1% 96.1% 48.8% Single month (Sep-26) y-y % Overall WFE -0.9% 65.1% -50.5% -47.8% -77.1% 106.1% 30.4% -40.2% 63.4% 63.6% -56.3% 79.4% -6.1% Netherlands -46.8% 265.7% 45.2% n.a. n.a. n.a. 13803.9% -57.8% -98.8% n.a. n.a. n.a. -27.9% Japan -5.7% -2.6% 15.6% -85.2% -86.2% 473.0% -24.2% -38.4% 1111.4% 512.1% -84.0% -10.4% -7.3% Singapore 105.8% 3.3% -93.9% n.a. -93.7% -90.5% -49.9% -57.4% n.a. 3.3% 133.6% -26.1% -21.1% Malaysia 62.0% 507.0% -59.9% n.a. n.a. 275.9% 8.0% n.a. n.a. 70.2% 225.3% 184.2% 40.8% US -60.0% 112.7% -62.2% n.a. n.a. -74.6% 73.0% n.a. -98.1% n.a. -84.2% -66.1% -36.3% Taiwan region 54.4% 651.3% -45.6% 1799.8% 962.3% 1979.8% 70.0% 42.1% -94.7% -20.0% 2705.4% -87.6% 117.4% Korea 74.5% -54.9% -79.3% -26.2% -42.8% 116.4% 1.6% -4.2% n.a. -28.8% -60.9% 11821.0% 26.5% Germany -67.2% -36.3% -0.1% n.a. n.a. n.a. -72.5% 157.0% 215.1% -90.3% -19.0% -8.3% -25.7% Other 5.3% 404.3% -19.4% 203.4% n.a. -82.6% 2.5% 187.4% 40.4% n.a. -53.4% 131.2% 17.5% YTD (1-9M26) y-y % Overall WFE 35.3% 147.7% -72.7% -38.5% -50.7% 55.7% 1.6% -51.8% 92.0% -29.1% 5.5% 9.2% -4.1% Netherlands 22.3% 55.3% -71.2% n.a. -54.5% 244.0% -11.8% -75.6% -98.2% 8.1% 949.0% 108.2% -10.1% Japan 25.0% 80.1% -58.3% -35.5% -70.4% 149.6% -5.0% -41.4% 305.1% -42.0% -40.2% -35.5% -12.1% Singapore 100.8% 225.1% -83.0% -50.6% -0.2% -37.9% 55.8% -18.4% -49.7% 83.4% -1.5% -58.0% 18.0% Malaysia 30.5% 536.2% -82.1% 1000.1% -72.8% 16.1% 50.6% -72.5% n.a. 12.0% 8.5% 244.6% -0.2% US -29.9% 165.0% -70.6% -72.5% 0.8% 14.9% -15.9% 8.6% -67.6% -42.9% -34.5% -51.3% -26.6% Taiwan region 137.7% 587.2% -79.4% 431.4% -22.2% 404.0% -21.1% -59.9% 197.1% -71.6% 44.8% -93.5% 42.4% Korea -1.3% 139.0% -49.5% -39.5% -48.8% 70.9% 9.9% -58.5% 5.9% -42.8% -31.7% 464.3% 9.0% Germany -40.9% -39.7% -72.8% -84.4% -7.5% 131.2% -8.0% 96.5% 159.6% 205.5% -30.7% -44.0% -25.6% Other -6.3% 84.0% -69.5% 14.6% -34.2% -16.7% -3.6% 25.2% 9.6% -65.6% -60.6% -28.3% -18.5% By category Single month (Sep-26) m-m % Overall WFE 28.9% 64.9% 295.6% 2.5% -60.7% -64.9% 159.1% 287.3% 63.4% -26.1% 3.5% -17.6% 26.1% Litho - Scanners & others -78.9% 96.2% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -26.3% 373.8% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -29.2% Litho - Steppers 2.2% 58.2% n.a. n.a. -33.3% n.a. 1457.0% 617.9% 92.0% -57.6% -67.2% -98.3% 0.5% Plasma etch 89.5% 135.0% 468.6% 85.7% n.a. -13.5% 128.0% -8.1% n.a. 20.3% 33.3% 76.9% 81.7% CVD 84.6% 81.1% -13.5% n.a. 67.9% -9.0% -12.6% 222.8% 195.7% -29.9% 44.4% -51.8% 47.4% PVD 74.4% 67.4% 536.2% n.a. n.a. n.a. 53.4% 2022.6% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 120.9% ALD, ECD, Epi -52.1% 9.7% 0.5% n.a. n.a. n.a. -99.8% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -47.9% Heat treatment -1.6% 139.0% 26.1% -47.4% n.a. n.a. 67.3% 2500.7% -3.6% 101.8% n.a. 2035.8% 55.5% Ion implantation 88.9% -59.4% -56.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. 608.3% n.a. -72.0% -21.1% n.a. -28.9% 1.1% Stripping, wet etch 858.1% -34.7% -89.6% n.a. -41.3% n.a. 1743.4% 29.5% n.a. n.a. n.a. -16.3% 145.0% Process control -14.4% 94.3% 95.2% -17.4% -83.5% -16.2% 221.3% 337.3% -37.7% 70.1% -38.8% 45.7% 4.4% Cleaning, track, bonder, others -29.9% 17.0% 131.0% 2019.9% -61.7% -77.4% 99.1% 130.4% -42.5% 86.2% -58.9% 43.2% -11.1% Single month (Sep-26) y-y % Overall WFE -0.9% 65.1% -50.5% -47.8% -77.1% 106.1% 30.4% -40.2% 63.4% 63.6% Litho - Scanners & others -94.6% 110.4% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -36.0% 169.4% n.a. n.a. n.a. 30.3% -54.5% Litho - Steppers -46.9% 174.1% 57.3% n.a. 46.9% n.a. 3194.2% -57.1% -95.9% 687.7% Plasma etch 73.3% 53.0% -27.4% 1489.5% n.a. 826.3% -32.0% -40.8% n.a. 19.8% CVD 232.6% -18.6% -92.9% n.a. -61.2% n.a. -36.8% -44.6% 13963.0% 87.1% PVD -33.5% -42.3% -76.4% n.a. n.a. n.a. -27.3% -0.6% n.a. n.a. ALD, ECD, Epi -17.4% 760.4% -85.1% n.a. n.a. n.a. -98.5% 64.3% n.a. n.a. Heat treatment 64.0% 54.5% -74.8% 18259.6% -76.3% n.a. -70.1% 172.0% 13.8% n.a. Ion implantation 187.3% -11.5% -59.4% n.a. n.a. n.a. 118.4% n.a. 27.5% n.a. Stripping, wet etch 118.2% -59.6% -52.3% n.a. 3775.8% n.a. 798.9% -43.4% -67.8% n.a. Process control -48.8% 435.4% -63.5% -82.0% -69.2% -88.9% -0.6% 644.3% 5.5% -80.3% Cleaning, track, bonder, others -34.0% 350.0% -65.2% 1.3% -98.3% -25.7% -13.4% 76.0% 1172.4% 3799.1% YTD (1-9M26) y-y % Overall WFE 35.3% 147.7% -72.7% -38.5% -50.7% 55.7% 1.6% -51.8% 92.0% Litho - Scanners & others -59.4% -46.1% -25.4% -51.2% -81.7% n.a. 2.1% 54.7% -63.4% Litho - Steppers 19.3% 46.8% -71.5% -79.1% -42.7% 233.6% -14.5% -75.1% -83.1% Plasma etch 54.3% 209.0% -76.1% 310.4% -82.2% 209.3% 7.9% -77.8% 118.2% CVD 103.6% 269.4% -84.7% -28.7% -51.0% -24.6% -0.5% -49.1% 404.6% PVD -15.5% 234.7% -51.9% -77.1% 0.3% -85.2% -12.9% 13.4% -61.6% ALD, ECD, Epi 106.1% 1309.6% -78.2% n.a. n.a. -25.6% -19.1% 28.4% 77.5% Heat treatment 109.6% 125.4% -73.3% 59171.2% -45.7% 12.9% -8.1% 38.0% 39.2% Ion implantation 15.7% 102.8% -57.9% n.a. n.a. -70.6% -13.9% -10.7% -39.1% Stripping, wet etch -33.0% -25.4% 31.2% -24.7% -78.9% -4.7% 50.8% -50.3% -39.0% Process control 2.8% 223.8% -73.8% -90.2% 54.2% -0.3% 6.1% 74.7% 127.9% Cleaning, track, bonder, others 15.2% 147.1% -60.6% 9.5% -78.8% 59.1% 14.8% -7.4% 493.8% Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Company data, Nomura research Fig. 13: China WFE importssplit by destination (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 14: China WFE importssplit by destination (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 15: WFE imports value y-y by destination (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 16: WFE imports value y-y by destination (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research ## Plasma etching equipment imports Fig. 17: China plasma etching equipment imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 18: Plasma etching imports split by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 19: Plasma etching imports split by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 20: Plasma etching imports y-y by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 21: Plasma etching imports y-y by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research ## Deposition equipment imports Fig. 22: China deposition equipment imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 23: Deposition imports split by category (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 24: Deposition imports split by category (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 25: Deposition imports y-y by category (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 26: Deposition imports y-y by category (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 27: China CVD equipment imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 28: CVD imports split by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 29: CVD imports split by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 30: CVD imports y-y by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 31: CVD imports y-y by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 32: China PVD equipment imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 33: PVD imports split by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 34: PVD imports split by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 35: PVD imports value y-y by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 36: PVD imports value y-y by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 37: China ALD, ECD, Epi equipment imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 38: ALD, ECD, Epi imports split by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 39: ALD, ECD, Epi imports split by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 40: ALD, ECD, Epi imports y-y by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 41: ALD, ECD, Epi imports y-y by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research ## Lithography equipment imports Fig. 42: China lithography equipment imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 43: Lithography imports split by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 44: Lithography imports split by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 45: Lithography imports value y-y by region (Sep-26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 46: Lithography imports value y-y by region (1-9M26)  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research ## Heat treatment equipment imports Fig. 47: China heat treatment equipment imports value and y-y  Source: PRC Customs Statistics, Nomura research Fig. 48: Heat treatment imports spli…
AI 解读
中国晶圆厂设备进口总额同比下降，但上海、北京和辽宁进口额显著增长，显示进口需求向北部和东部集中；美国直接进口份额下降，而经新加坡、马来西亚和台湾的间接进口份额上升。报告认为，较高基数和国产设备厂商份额提升是进口下降的重要解释。