“# The Flow Show # Sell Signal Ends Scores on the Doors: oil 70.0%, US stocks 13.1%, global stocks 10.2%, US dollar 3.8%, cash 2.9%, HY bonds -0.9%, IG -3.2%, govt bonds -4.4%, gold -4.5%, bitcoin -6.1% YTD. The Biggest Picture: summer of extreme bull sentiment ends, but asset all…”
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# The Flow Show # Sell Signal Ends Scores on the Doors: oil 70.0%, US stocks 13.1%, global stocks 10.2%, US dollar 3.8%, cash 2.9%, HY bonds -0.9%, IG -3.2%, govt bonds -4.4%, gold -4.5%, bitcoin -6.1% YTD. The Biggest Picture: summer of extreme bull sentiment ends, but asset allocators are not underweight risk; '26 record year of inflows (Charts 15-16) to global stocks (\$1.3tn annualized), US equities (\$636bn), IG bonds (\$480bn), tech funds (\$196bn – Chart 2), Korea equities (\$76bn) vs. record year of outflows from consumer funds (\$18bn). The Price is Right: bond yields declining in Oct = equity breadth to improve in Q4; many “oversold” stocks... S&P 500 stocks trading 10% below their 52-week highs = 355, trading 20% below 52-week highs = 188, trading 30% below 52-week highs = 93. Tale of the Tape: Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, Turkish lira at/close to all-time lows (Charts 3-5), while Japanese yen 3% from 40-year lows; combined population of Japan, Türkiye, Indonesia, India = 2 billion, and extreme currency depreciation (past 5 years...TRY -81%, JPY -28%, INR -21%, IDR -21%) never socially popular. Chart 2: 2026 = record year for tech inflows Flows to tech funds, cumulative by year  Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR. \*2026 flows are annualized. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2... Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14. 13029017 ## 15 October 2026 Investment Strategy Global ## BofA Data Analytics  Michael Hartnett Investment Strategist BofAS +1 646 855 1508 michael.hartnett@bofa.com Anya Shelekhin Investment Strategist BofAS +1 646 855 3753 anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee Jung Investment Strategist BofAS +1 646 855 0389 myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Jessica Guo Investment Strategist BofAS +1 646 855 0033 jessica.guo@bofa.com ## Chart 1: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Down to 7.4 from 8.1  Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicator identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as a benchmark. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Weekly Flows: \$64.5bn to stocks, \$11.8bn to bonds, \$0.1bn to gold, \$0.6bn from crypto, \$53.1bn from cash. ## Flows to Know: \- Treasuries: \$3.6bn inflow...16 $^{th}$ weekly inflow, longest streak since Aug'24, \- IG bonds: \$3.5bn inflow...IG annualizing record \$480bn inflow YTD, • Stocks: \$64.5bn inflow...global stocks annualizing record \$1.3tn inflow YTD, • US stocks: \$39.1bn inflow...US stocks annualizing record \$636bn inflow YTD, • Tech: \$10.7bn inflow...tech funds annualizing record \$196bn inflow YTD, \- EM stocks: \$17.7bn inflow, biggest since Jul'26 (\$8.6bn into China, record \$4.7bn into Brazil past 2 weeks), \- South Korea stocks: \$1.1bn inflow...S. Korea funds annualizing record \$76bn inflow YTD...for every \$100 of Korea inflow YTD, just \$7 of outflow since Aug peak vs. KOSPI -30% from June peak (Chart 13). BofA Private Clients: \$4.7tn AUM...66.4% stocks (record high), 17.1% bonds (almost record low), 9.3% cash (record low); private clients still adding stocks...equity ETF share count up 0.2% past week, up 8.0% YTD, but bond holdings starting to rise (up \$11bn since Q1 in 2-10 year USTs, up \$4.5bn in T-bills since June – Chart 14); in ETFs past 4 weeks, private clients buying municipal bond, bank loan, industrials ETFs, and selling staples, EM debt, and consumer discretionary ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: drops sharply from 8.1 to 7.4, driven by deteriorating global stock index breadth, bearish hedge fund positions in oil and S&P 500 futures, less bullish positioning in gold futures, and weaker HY and EM debt flows, partially offset by stronger tech inflows; Bull & Bear Indicator drop below 8.0 ends "sell signal" triggered May $26^{\text{th}}$ performance of risk indices since then SPX +3.0% (max drawdown -4.5%), NDX -0.2% (max drawdown -11.3%), ACWI +1.1% (max drawdown -4.4%), JNK junk bonds -4.1% (max drawdown -4.7%); "old" Bull & Bear Indicator drops to 5.1 from 5.6 last week and recent peak of 8.0 on Sept $1^{\text{st}}$ (see BofA Bull & Bear Indicator report). BofA Breadth Rule: net 52% of global equity market indices "oversold" (trading below 50-day & 200-day moving averages) ...most since Apr'25; BofA Breadth Rule a faithful contrarian signal and "buy signal" for risk assets will be triggered if net 88% markets trading Wk % AUM YTD YTD %AUM Equities 0.2% 995,130 3.3% ETFs 0.4% 1,431,818 8.3% LO -0.1% -436,229 -3.4% Bonds 0.1% 771,911 8.0% Commodities -0.1% 57,265 5.8% Money-market -0.5% 393,899 3.5% \*week ended 10/14/2026: Source: EPFR Global BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Table 2: Big YTD inflows to US stocks Global equity flows by region, \$mn Wk % AUM YTD Total Equities 0.2% 995,130 long-only funds -0.1% -436,229 ETFs 0.4% 1,431,818 Total EM 0.6% -28,214 Brazil 7.1% 8,569 India -0.5% -13,217 China 1.4% -193,540 Total DM 0.2% 1,023,344 US 0.2% 501,684 Europe -0.1% -16,226 Japan 0.0% 26,985 International 0.1% 473,523 Total Equities = Total EM + Total DM. Source: EPFR Global BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Chart 17: FICC inflows to TIPS, bank loans, Treasuries Weekly FICC flows as a % AUM  Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH ## BofA private client flows & allocations Chart 18: Private clients bought muni bond, bank loan, industrials ETFs BofA private clients 4-week ETF flows as % of AUM  Source: BofA Global investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Chart 19: GWIM equity allocation at 66% BofA private client equity holdings as % of AUM  Source: BofA Global investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Chart 20: GWIM debt allocation at 17% BofA private client debt holdings as % of AUM  Source: BofA Global investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Chart 21: GWIM cash allocation at 9% BofA private client cash holdings as % of AUM  Source: BofA Global investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Chart 22: GWIM equity ETFs 21%, debt ETFs 19% of AUM BofA private client ETF holdings as % of AUM  Source: BofA Global investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Chart 23: \$55bn to T-notes vs \$31bn to T-bills since 2020 BofA private client cumulative inflow to Treasuries since 2020 (\$bn)  Source: BofA Global investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH ## The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns Chart 24: Historical asset class performance by year Ranked cross asset returns by year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* MSCI EM 39.8% US Treasuries 14.0% MSCI EM 79.0% Gold 29.2% US Treasuries 9.8% REITS 23.8% S&P 500 32.4% S&P 500 13.7% S&P 500 1.4% Commodities 17.5% MSCI EM 37.8% Cash 1.8% S&P 500 31.5% Gold 24.8% Commodities 46.3% Commodities 31.1% S&P 500 26.3% Gold 26.7% Gold 60.7% Commodities 87.2% Commodities 33.0% Gold 4.3% Global HY 62.0% MSCI EM 19.2% Gold 8.9% Global HY 19.3% MSCI EAFE 23.3% REITS 11.7% US Treasuries 0.8% Global HY 14.8% MSCI EAFE 25.9% US Treasuries 0.8% REITS 27.4% MSCI EM 18.8% REITS 37.1% Cash 1.5% MSCI EAFE 18.9% S&P 500 25.0% MSCI EM 32.0% MSCI EM 20.3% Gold 31.9% Cash 2.1% MSCI EAFE 32.5% REITS 15.9% Global IG 4.5% MSCI EM 18.6% Global HY 8.0% US Treasuries 6.0% Cash 0.1% S&P 500 12.0% S&P 500 22.0% Gold -1.9% MSCI EAFE 22.8% S&P 500 18.4% S&P 500 28.7% Gold -0.8% Global HY 13.4% MSCI EM 8.0% MSCI EAFE 29.0% S&P 500 13.8% MSCI EAFE 11.6% Global IG -8.3% REITS 31.7% S&P 500 15.1% Global HY 2.6% MSCI EAFE 17.9% REITS 0.7% Global IG 3.2% MSCI EAFE -0.8% MSCI EM 11.2% Gold 12.9% Global HY -3.3% Commodities 20.1% Global IG 10.3% MSCI EAFE 11.9% US Treasuries -12.9% Gold 12.7% Global HY 7.5% S&P 500 18.5% MSCI EAFE 9.3% US Treasuries 9.1% Global HY -27.9% S&P 500 26.5% Global HY 13.9% S&P 500 2.1% S&P 500 16.0% Global IG 0.1% Gold 0.1% REITS -3.4% Gold 8.6% REITS 11.5% Global IG -3.4% MSCI EM 18.6% MSCI EAFE 8.4% Global HY 1.4% Global HY -13.2% REITS 11.3% Commodities 5.5% Global HY 9.9% REITS 7.3% Global IG 7.3% S&P 500 -37.0% Commodities 26.1% Commodities 13.3% Cash 0.1% Global IG 11.1% Cash 0.1% Cash 0.0% Global IG -3.8% Global IG 4.3% Global HY 10.2% REITS -3.9% Gold 17.9% US Treasuries 8.2% Cash 0.0% MSCI EAFE -13.9% MSCI EM 10.1% Cash 5.3% Global IG 9.8% Cash 2.9% S&P 500 5.5% Commodities -42.6% Gold 25.0% MSCI EAFE 8.2% Commodities -2.6% Gold 8.3% Commodities -2.1% Global HY -0.1% Global HY -4.2% REITS 1.3% Global IG 9.3% S&P 500 -4.3% Global HY 13.7% Global HY 8.0% MSCI EM -2.3% Global IG -16.7% Global IG 9.5% MSCI EAFE 4.4% US Treasuries 6.1% Global HY -0.9% Cash 5.0% MSCI EAFE -43.1% Global IG 19.2% Global IG 6.0% REITS -9.4% US Treasuries 2.2% MSCI EM -2.3% MSCI EM -1.8% Gold -10.4% US Treasuries 1.1% Commodities 7.6% Commodities -13.1% Global IG 11.4% Cash 0.5% US Treasuries -2.4% S&P 500 -18.1% Cash 5.1% REITS 3.2% Commodities 5.9% US Treasuries -2.1% Global HY 3.0% REITS -50.2% Cash 0.2% US Treasuries 5.9% MSCI EAFE -11.7% Cash 0.1% US Treasuries -3.3% MSCI EAFE -4.5% MSCI EM -14.9% MSCI EAFE 1.0% US Treasuries 2.4% MSCI EAFE -13.2% US Treasuries 7.0% REITS -4.4% Global IG -3.0% MSCI EM -19.8% US Treasuries 3.9% Global IG 1.2% Cash 4.0% Global IG -3.1% REITS -10.0% MSCI EM -53.2% US Treasuries -3.7% Cash 0.1% MSCI EM -18.2% Commodities -0.3% Gold -27.3% Commodities -29.3% Commodities -29.4% Cash 0.3% Cash 0.8% MSCI EM -14.3% Cash 2.2% Commodities -15.0% Gold -4.1% REITS -25.2% Commodities -3.5% US Treasuries 0.5% REITS 3.5% Gold -5.1% Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg. \*2026 YTD BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, EPFR Global, Lipper FMI, Global FMS, CFTC, MSCI BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH ## BofA Rules & Tools ## Table 3: Table 6: BofA Global Investment Strategy Proprietary Indicators Table 4: BofA B&B Indicator BofA Bull & Bear current component readings Proprietary Indicators Category Current reading Current signal Duration of signal Contrarian BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B) Contrarian 7.4 Neutral 1-3 months Sell when investor sentiment > 8.0; Buy when investor sentiment < 2.0 BofA Global FMS Cash Indicator Contrarian 3.9% Sell 4 weeks Buy when cash at or above 5.0%; Sell when cash at or below 4.0% BofA Global Breadth Rule Contrarian -52.3% Neutral 3 months Buy when net 88% of markets in MSCI ACWI trading below 200-day moving & 50-day moving averages BofA Global Flow Trading Rule Contrarian 0.0% Neutral 8 weeks Buy when outflows from global equities & HY > 1.0% AUM over 4wks; Sell when inflows > 1.0% AUM over 4wks BofA EM Flow Trading Rule Contrarian 0.6% Neutral 8 weeks Buy when outflows from EM equities > 3.0% of AUM; Sell when inflows > 1.5% of AUM over 4 wks Macro BofA Global EPS Growth Model Macro 35% EPS growth rising 6-12 months Model indicates trend in year-on-year change in 12-month forward global EPS growth. Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy. See Global Investment Strategy: Rules & Tools, 12 November 2020 and BofA Bull & Bear Indicator revamp reports BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH ## BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B) Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 7.4... signal is Neutral. Chart 25: BofA Bull & Bear at 7.4 Down to 7.4 from 8.1  Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Components Percentile Sentiment Hedge Fund Positioning 69% Neutral Equity Flow 71% Bullish Bond Flow 57% Neutral Credit Market Technicals 59% Neutral Global Stock Index Breadth 32% Neutral FMS Positioning 100% V Bullish Chart 26: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 7.4 BofA Bull & Bear Indicator since 2002  Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global, FMS, CFTC, MSCI. Disclaimer: The indicators identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, MVP Model, BofA Global Breadth Rule, BofA EM Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global FMS Macro Indicator, BofA Global FMS Cash Rule, Global Wave, Sell-Side Indicator, and Global Financial Stress Indicator are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark. The analysis of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in this report is back-tested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the hypothetical back-tested performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. In future periods, market and economic conditions will differ and the same strategy will not necessarily produce the same results. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between back-tested returns and the actual results realized in the actual management of a portfolio. Back-tested performance results are created by applying an investment strategy or methodology to historical data and attempts to give an indication as to how a strategy might have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations including the fact that they are calculated with the full benefit of hindsight, which allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted to maximize the returns. Further, the results shown do not reflect actual trading or the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on a portfolio manager's decision-making under actual circumstances. Back-tested returns do not reflect advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or expenses. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH ## 2026 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers ## Table 5: 2026 YTD ranked returns Year-to-date cross asset returns in US dollar terms Ranked Returns, USD-terms (YTD 2026) Assets Equities Sectors Fixed Income FX vs. USD Commodities 1 Oil 65.6% 1 Korea Equities 72.9% 1 ACWI Energy 41.3% 1 3-Month T-Bills 2.8% 1 Brazilian real 8.9% 1 Commodities 87.2% 2 Japan Equities 21.1% 2 Taiwan Equities 70.4% 2 ACWI Info Tech 31.4% 2 2-year Treasury 0.6% 2 Korean won 7.5% 2 Brent Crude Oil 74.3% 3 EM Equities 20.5% 3 Brazil Equities 35.9% 3 ACWI BioTechnology 16.2% 3 US Corp HY -0.2% 3 Norwegian krone 6.0% 3 WTI Crude Oil 65.6% 4 US Equities 13.6% 4 Japan Equities 21.1% 4 ACWI Banks 8.1% 4 EM Corporate -0.7% 4 Australian dollar 4.5% 4 Copper 17.1% 5 Industrial Metals 12.7% 5 Portugal Equities 19.4% 5 ACWI Materials 7.0% 5 TIPS -1.4% 5 Chinese renminbi 4.3% 5 Gold -5.9% 6 Pacific Rim xJapan 10.4% 6 Greece Equities 18.1% 6 ACWI Industrials 6.6% 6 BBB IG -1.8% 6 Russian ruble 0.0% 6 Natural Gas -13.2% 7 UK Equities 8.7% 7 Singapore Equities 16.6% 7 ACWI Consumer Staples 6.3% 7 Treasury Master -2.1% 7 South African rand -0.2% 7 Iron Ore -14.6% 8 Europe Equities 5.0% 8 Türkiye Equities 13.7% 8 ACWI Healthcare 6.1% 8 US Corp IG -2.1% 8 Japanese yen -1.0% 8 Silver -20.9% 9 US Dollar 4.3% 9 US Equities 13.6% 9 ACWI Financials 3.8% 9 US Mortgage Master -2.1% 9 Taiwanese dollar -2.1% 10 High Yield Bonds -0.9% 10 Canada Equities 10.6% 10 ACWI Utilities 0.8% 10 EM Sovereign -2.4% 10 British pound -2.1% 11 EM Sovereign Bonds -2.4% 11 Australia Equities 10.4% 11 ACWI Telecoms 0.2% 11 UK Govt -4.7% 11 Mexican peso -2.6% 12 IG bonds -3.2% 12 Spain Equities 9.9% 12 ACWI Real Estate -0.9% 12 CCC HY -5.5% 12 NZ dollar -2.9% 13 Government Bonds -4.4% 13 UK Equities 8.7% 13 ACWI Cons. Discretionary -7.6% 13 Japan Govt -5.6% 13 Canadian dollar -3.6% 14 Gold -5.9% 14 Mexico Equities 6.9% 14 European HY -5.8% 14 Euro -5.0% 15 Italy Equities 6.0% 15 30-year Treasury -6.2% 15 Swiss franc -5.1% 16 Hong Kong Equities 4.8% 16 Non-US IG Govt -6.4% 16 Indian rupee -5.5% 17 Switzerland Equities 3.9% 17 German Govt -6.7% 17 Indonesian rupiah -6.8% 18 Germany Equities -1.4% 18 Bitcoin -6.8% 19 France Equities -5.2% 19 Swedish krona -8.1% 20 S. Africa Equities -5.3% 20 Turkish lira -13.0% 21 China Equities -12.7% 22 India Equities -14.3% Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, as of 14 October 2026 ## Table 6: The Overbought & Oversold Ranked deviation from 200-day moving averages in US dollar terms BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Ranked Deviation from 200-Day Moving Average, USD-terms Assets Equities Sectors Fixed Income FX vs. USD Commodities 1 Oil 12.4% 1 Taiwan Equities 19.1% 1 ACWI Energy 13.4% 1 3-Month T-Bills 1.3% 1 Korean won 8.7% 1 Brent Crude Oil 17.5% 2 US Equities 6.5% 2 Brazil Equities 16.2% 2 ACWI Info Tech 12.6% 2 2-year Treasury 0.1% 2 Brazilian real 2.1% 2 WTI Crude Oil 12.4% 3 Japan Equities 6.3% 3 US Equities 6.5% 3 ACWI BioTechnology 12.4% 3 European HY -1.2% 3 Chinese renminbi 1.7% 3 Copper 8.1% 4 US Dollar 3.1% 4 Japan Equities 6.3% 4 ACWI Healthcare 5.8% 4 German Govt -1.3% 4 Norwegian krone 0.3% 4 Natural Gas 3.6% 5 EM Equities 3.0% 5 Singapore Equities 5.7% 5 ACWI Financials 1.5% 5 US Corp HY -1.3% 5 Japanese yen 0.1% 5 Gold -9.8% 6 Industrial Metals 1.6% 6 Greece Equities 4.9% 6 ACWI Banks 1.4% 6 EM Corporate -1.4% 6 Singapore dollar -0.5% 6 Iron Ore -10.9% 7 UK Equities 1.2% 7 Portugal Equities 4.7% 7 ACWI Consumer Staples 1.2% 7 UK Govt -1.5% 7 Australian dollar -1.0% 7 Platinum -16.8% 8 Pacific Rim xJapan 0.6% 8 Canada Equities 2.3% 8 ACWI Telecoms 0.3% 8 Japan Govt -1.9% 8 Taiwanese dollar -1.0% 8 Silver -22.7% 9 Europe Equities -0.9% 9 Spain Equities 2.0% 9 ACWI Real Estate 0.0% 9 Treasury Master -1.9% 9 Indian rupee -1.1% 10 High Yield Bonds -2.0% 10 Korea Equities 1.4% 10 ACWI Materials -3.1% 10 BBB IG -2.0% 10 South African rand -1.3% 11 EM Sov Bonds -2.7% 11 UK Equities 1.2% 11 ACWI Cons. Discretionary -3.5% 11 TIPS -2.0% 11 British pound -1.8% 12 IG Bonds -3.0% 12 Australia Equities 0.2% 12 ACWI Industrials -3.6% 12 US Corp IG -2.1% 12 Indonesian rupiah -2.5% 13 Govt Bonds -3.3% 13 Switzerland Equities -0.5% 13 ACWI Utilities -4.6% 13 US Mortgage Master -2.5% 13 Canadian dollar -2.5% 14 Gold -9.3% 14 Germany Equities -2.0% 14 EM Sovereign -2.7% 14 Euro -3.7% 15 Italy Equities -2.0% 15 Non-US IG Govt -4.6% 15 NZ dollar -4.2% 16 Hong Kong Equities -2.4% 16 CCC HY -5.0% 16 Argentine peso -4.4% 17 Mexico Equities -4.1% 17 30-year Treasury -5.3% 17 Swiss franc -4.5% 18 India Equities -5.5% 18 Mexican …AI 解读
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator dropped to 7.4 from 8.1, ending the sell signal triggered May 26;2026 on track for record inflows to global stocks ($1.3tn annualized) and tech funds ($196bn annualized)